After 40/40, delving into the nitty-gritty

For the first time in a Lok Sabha election, the AIADMK forfeited deposits in seven constituencies. For the ruling DMK, the verdict is seen as a popular endorsement of the functioning of its three-year government under Chief Minister M.K. Stalin. The outcome indicates that the BJP, whose Hindutva ideology has all along been considered alien to the political ethos of Tamil Nadu

The result of the Lok Sabha election in Tamil Nadu was a sweep for the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and its allies, but a closer look will reveal several important and crucial points that all parties would do well to take note of. The erosion of the AIADMK’s vote base, which began immediately after the death of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa in December 2016, continued to such an extent that the party, for the first time in a Lok Sabha election, forfeited deposits in seven constituencies. In the past too (1980, 1996, 2004 and 2019), it fared disastrously. But it has never suffered the ignominy that it experienced this time.

Among the seven constituencies where the AIADMK did not retain its security deposit were South Chennai and Tirunelveli. Only 10 years ago did the party capture the two seats (in fact, it retained South Chennai in 2014) with a vote share of 40% and above. In these two places, it was the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), an erstwhile ally of the AIADMK, that was the runner-up. This apart, even in the western region, considered a traditional bastion of the party, the fall appears to be steep. Be it in Coimbatore or the neighbouring Pollachi or Namakkal, the drop, compared to the party’s performance in 2014, was in the range of around 23 percentage points to 16-17 percentage points. However, AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami says that compared to 2019, his party’s overall vote share went up by about 1%.

In the last decade, the 2021 Assembly election result did provide a breather to the party, but the organisation has undergone massive churning since then. Besides, its core supporters are still being wooed by T.T.V. Dhinakaran, general secretary of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), V.K. Sasikala, former interim general secretary of the AIADMK, and even some BJP leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Veteran academic G. Palanithurai asserts that under the given circumstances, the performance of the AIADMK is impressive, though it did not get a single seat. “You should not forget the fact that EPS is neither M.G. Ramachandran nor Jayalalithaa. He lacks the charisma factor,” he says. This time, he adds, the AIADMK had only one ally — the DMDK — which began with a bang, but its sway has diminished. In addition, the party can no longer fall back on the Central government for support as it broke the ties with the BJP in September last year.

The possible emergence of the BJP, whose Hindutva ideology has all along been considered alien to the political ethos of Tamil Nadu, as a major force in near future — if not as a principal force — is another highlight of the outcome. Though the party, under the leadership of La. Ganesan (now Nagaland Governor), former Union Minister Pon. Radhakrishnan, and former Telangana Governor and Lt. Governor of Puducherry Tamilisai Soundararajan, made its presence felt in State politics in a relatively subdued manner, the appointment of L. Murugan in 2020 and K. Annamalai the next year, as the president of the State unit, gave a different dimension to the organisation. That the two young leaders were keen on promoting their party’s interests aggressively became well known very quickly. Incidentally, it was Mr. Annamalai’s observations on former Chief Ministers C.N. Annadurai and Jayalalithaa that became the cause for the divorce between the AIADMK and the BJP.

Mr. Annamalai had been in campaign mode, virtually from day 1. His virulent attacks on the ruling DMK, through what he called disclosures of deeds of alleged corruption, his party’s agitations on many issues of public importance, and his En Mann En Makkal yatra, which was attended, among others, by the Prime Minister and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, have contributed to the perception that the BJP is here to stay and it can no longer be ignored or taken lightly. The cumulative impact of all the events in the last three-four years has been illustrated in the form of the rise in the vote share of the BJP, though its political adversaries say the BJP has “disproportionately” benefited from its allies, including the PMK. When all is said and done, the national party’s vote share jumped from 5.56% in 2014 (when it faced the electorate without the support of either of the Dravidian parties) to 11.24% in 2024, when it was not aligned with any Dravidian major either. On the other hand, the PMK, which was one of the allies of the BJP even in 2014, saw its support base hovering around 4.5% then (4.45%). It is 4.3% now.

The fact that the two erstwhile allies — the AIADMK and the BJP — bagged no seat has naturally disturbed the leaders of the two parties. Talk has already begun in political circles that had there been a tie-up, the outcome would have been different in at least a dozen seats. The AIADMK’s Coimbatore strongman and former Minister, S.P. Velumani, and Dr. Tamilisai Soundararajan of the BJP reckon that the alliance would have won most of the seats. But it is debatable whether any such electoral understanding would have yielded results, given the acrimonious way in which the two parted ways about 9 months ago. It could have well been the Tamil Nadu version of what happened to the Congress-Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) alliance in Delhi.