Myanmar’s continued suspension of democracy 

When did the coup take place and what followed? Why did the ruling junta invite Russia as a guest of honour for Armed Forces Day?  

The story so far: On March 27, Myanmar commemorated its Armed Forces Day with a grand parade featuring Russia as the guest of honour. The Armed Forces Day is in honour of the army’s rebellion against the Japanese occupation in 1945. The leader of the country’s ruling military junta, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, gave exceptionally inflammatory comments aimed to quell dissidents and protesters. He said that the armed forces would “annihilate” the dissidents who he deemed “supporters of terrorist groups” looking to threaten the peace and security of the country. The country has led intense crackdowns on those resisting junta rule. The General invalidated the identity and agency of those protesting, and by deeming them terrorists, provided the authorities a basis to engage violently.

The military continues to conduct operations in different regions of the country to quash dissident voices. The regions under artillery attack, airstrikes, and other physical forms of violent attacks include Sagaing, the Kayah State, the Chin State, and the Kayin State, reminiscent of last year’s bloody operations on Armed Forces Day. Myanmar continues its resistance with political opponents of the junta also joining militias. These militias have collaborated with some long-standing ethnic armed groups which have operated in the borderlands of the country.

These States have rarely been centrally controlled. For most part of their history, these have been ruled by local leaders. These States can also serve as a buffer between Myanmar and its bordering nations and thus be a site of constant assaults. The Wa state of the larger Shan State in particular has a remarkably complex history with it being over-run by Mao Zedong’s forces during the Chinese Civil War. After about two decades, the region was taken over by the Communist Party of Burma. Deng Xiaoping’s tenure saw China making a halt on the assaults and instead focusing on potential trade opportunities. As a result of such historical events, China enjoys a complex relationship with the local factions and the military junta.

Myanmar’s military junta seized power last year on February 1 and then invited Russia, their “true friend”, as a guest of honour for its Armed Forces Day celebrations. Apart from Russia, India and seven other countries sent their representatives to attend the military parade. Keeping the bonhomie alive, Myanmar was one of the very few countries which came to Moscow’s defence after the invasion of Ukraine. Russia also continues to be a major defence exporter to Myanmar. Myanmar doesn’t like to exclusively depend on one country for its defence needs and its history shows that it likes to cozy up to different seemingly sympathetic countries. Apart from Russia, China is another major player which offers arms to Myanmar. Pakistan, India, Serbia, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Republic of Korea also routinely export defence equipment, and small to medium size arms and ammunitions. Myanmar has a tumultuous relationship with China as Beijing is also involved in arming rebel factions and thus, Myanmar wishes to diversify its dependence.

The relationship between Russia and the junta seems to be of cooperation, one which now favours Moscow more than before as it faces sanctions from a host of countries. Myanmar is looking to use their raw materials as currency which works out for them as well as Moscow. The flip side to this story is that as the Russian offence continues in Ukraine, it would not have the capacity or the willingness to export its defence equipment to Myanmar.

Myanmar continues to run the Moscow agenda in international fora whenever it can by being sympathetic to Russia’s actions and referring to Vladimir Putin as “a visionary leader who had the foresight to quietly build up his military and economic strength”. In doing so, they are propagating a strong-man argument and thus trying to solidify their domestic support to sell a similarly constructed imagination of what a nation could be with just the right kind of actions.

The junta’s actions in Myanmar have been downright horrific. Hundreds of children were detained since the junta seized power back in 2021 in a bid to use them as leverage in order to find and arrest their family members and relatives who may be part of dissident groups. The junta was and continues to be allegedly involved in mass killings, acts of sexual violence, and arbitrary arrests of protesters and other civic society members who refuse to toe the line. On February 1, 2021, the junta arrested the country’s elected leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi and then president Win Myint. It is reported that close to 4,00,000 people have been internally displaced since the beginning of the coup in 2021.