Which movies actually could win the best picture Oscar? Our top 5.

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It's the final countdown.

For a lot of folks, figuring out what'll be named best picture on March 15 at the 98th Academy Awards (ABC and Hulu, 7 p.m. ET/4 PT) is a relatively recent conundrum. Yet while they've only been thinking about it since late January, film critics like yours truly have been thinking about this slate of 10 nominated films for much of the last year. That's a lot of hemming and hawing, a lot of second- and triple-guessing, and a bevy of rewatches to gauge the worthiness of being part of a historically significant canon. (Thankfully, they're all at least pretty good – no "Bohemian Rhapsody" lurking among them to worry about possibly winning.)

So what's the best of the best among this year's Oscar crop? Here are my top five:

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"The Life of Chuck" might have been the best movie of 2025, but "Sinners" was a close second, so it makes the top of my ballot. Ryan Coogler's vampire-filled musical period epic won best ensemble at the Actor Awards, making the Oscar race downright scintillating in the last weeks. Michael B. Jordan delivers a sensational dual performance as twin gangsters staving off bloodsuckers at their juke joint's door. It's gory and bizarre but rousing and beautiful. And "Sinners" − which would be just the second horror movie in almost a century of Oscar history to win best picture − is the one film on this list that really feels like it'll influence a generation of filmmakers.