Trump’s U-turn on Russia-Ukraine to hang over EU-India talks

President of the European Commission and EU Commissioners visit India to strengthen ties amid global policy shifts.

Stung by the shifts in U.S. foreign policy, particularly on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the two-day visit by the President of the European Commission (EU) Ursula von der Leyen and 21 EU Commissioners beginning Thursday (February 27, 2025) will send the message that Europe is shoring up other partners, including India, as much as they focus on the task of resetting EU-India ties. The College of Commissioners’ travel is “unprecedented”, a EU statement said, as they have never travelled to any country in such strength before. According to EU officials who briefed European and India media this week, the visit has been planned for some months, and was announced by Ms. von der Leyen at Davos on January 21. The policy changes wrought by U.S. President Donald Trump since then hang over the meetings in Delhi.

“A new push for greater cooperation, to be clear, was already identified and planned quite a while ago,” an EU official said, adding, “But the timing of this visit is, of course, particularly interesting given the global developments that we are facing.” 

The European delegation comes just after the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which was marked by a moment of solidarity with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the presence of more than a dozen European and Western leaders, including Ms. von der Leyen, in Kyiv for commemorative ceremonies. The EU also imposed a 16th round of sanctions on Russia, even as the U.S. broke with it at the United Nations by voting with Russia against an EU resolution calling for the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. 

Their meetings with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and many members of the Union Cabinet will coincide with Mr. Zelenskyy’s travel to Washington to sign a “mineral deal” and discuss a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire proposal with Mr. Trump, seen as a significant climbdown by the Ukrainian President, even after Mr. Trump called him a “dictator” with “4% approval ratings”. The EU visit to Delhi will also come days before an extraordinary European summit on March 6.

“One specific point that I expect President Leyen to raise in the context of that conversation is not just our support for Ukraine, but also our sanctions that we are maintaining on Russia,” the EU official said, indicating that despite the setback from the U.S.’s U-turn, the EU would continue “intensifying enforcement of its sanctions against Moscow”. New Delhi, which has rejected all sanctions against Russia thus far, and increased its oil imports from the Russian Ural multi-fold since 2022, is unlikely to change its position, especially in the revised circumstances.

The substance of the visit, then, will come from a restart in EU-India relations that have been somewhat cast in the shade over the Ukraine conflict. There has been no EU-India annual summit since 2020, although they held a ‘Leader’s Summit’ in 2021, and are now preparing for a summit later in 2025. Despite relaunching the long-pending EU-India Bilateral Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) talks in 2022, the two sides have not made much headway over tariff issues on cars, wine and spirits, and on non-tariff barriers, officials conceded, and will hope for a political push during the Delhi visit ahead of the next round of trade talks on March 10-14 in Brussels. 

The visit will begin with a meeting of the Trade and Technology Council (TTC), which is expected to work on aligning AI policies as well as cooperation on semiconductors, quantum computing, and green technology areas. This will be followed by bilateral meetings between EU Commissioners and Indian Ministers, a plenary with Mr. Modi, Ms. von der Leyen and their Cabinets, as well as meetings with key Indian industry leaders. The two sides are expected to hold broad discussions on updating the EU-India Strategic Roadmap (2020-2025), including cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. While EU Commissioners will attempt some subtle messaging on “de-risking” European economies from China, and seeking to pivot to India, this may be harder to attain. EU-China trade stood at 739 billion Euros ($775 billion) in 2023, about six times more than EU-India trade at 124 billion Euros ($130 billion), although trade with China has plateaued whereas trade with India grew 90% in a decade. Of particular note will be talks on climate change and green transition, where the EU could step in to work with India even as the U.S. returns to fossil fuels under Mr. Trump.