Tamil Nadu Economic Survey says trillion-dollar economy achievable at current growth rate

Tamil Nadu's Economic Survey projects a trillion-dollar economy by 2031, contingent on sustained high growth rates despite potential dollar fluctuations.

Tamil Nadu can achieve its trillion-dollar economy milestone by 2031 if it sustains the 2024-25 nominal growth rate of 16%, “with an assumption of 2% (medium-term rate) rise in the value of dollar against rupee per annum in the medium term,” according to the Economic Survey of Tamil Nadu 2025-26. “With 3.5% short term rate of rise of dollar value, it may be delayed for a year,” said the Survey prepared by the State Planning Commission (SPC) with details from the Finance Department and several subject experts.

The Survey was handed over to Chief Minister M.K. Stalin on Monday (February 16, 2026).

Commenting on the second Economic Survey of the DMK government, J. Jeyaranjan, Executive Vice Chairman of the SPC, in his foreword, mentioned the State focused and continues to focus on both growth and social justice, resulting in a robust model for many other States to emulate. “This unique model has resulted in a balanced sectoral growth. In fact, our double-digit growth recorded last year was spearheaded by the secondary sector, which our national economy and many other States aim to achieve.”

The Survey not only highlights the “stellar performance” of the State’s economy but also indicates the areas of concern that need to be addressed to reach the desired twin targets of a trillion-dollar economy and a per capita income on par with developed countries.

The 263-page report also pointed out the State’s textile exports, which account for a major share of Tamil Nadu’s export, are facing headwinds due to the recent 50% hike in the United States’ tariffs. Nearly 30% of the State’s textile exports are directed to the U.S. market. “While this poses a temporary setback, the Union government’s suspension of the 11% customs duty on cotton until December 2025 offers partial relief to the sector. At the same time, Tamil Nadu is actively diversifying its export markets to reduce dependence on traditional destinations and align with the shifting contours of global trade,” the report said. The recent India-European Union (EU) free trade agreement and the India-U.S. trade agreement, by which U.S. tariffs on Indian goods will reduce from 50% to 18% soon, may help in this regard.

Since February 2025, multiple rounds of U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures heightened trade uncertainty. The global economy grew at 3.3% in 2025. India’s economy recorded 6.49% in 2024-25, but increased its growth performance to 7.4% in 2025-26. Despite global headwinds, Tamil Nadu remained resilient.