Rupee to remain under pressure despite RBI support: Societe Generale
The Hindu
Slowing global growth, Fed's rate stance to make it difficult for currency
The Indian rupee is likely to struggle against the dollar as slowing global growth and the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance overshadows Reserve Bank of India's intervention, Societe General suggested in a note on Friday.
"The RBI is likely to intervene at key levels such as 80," Kunal Kundu, economist at Societe Generale, wrote in the note.
"However, we believe that such interventions would provide opportunities to buy on dips in the USD/INR, rather than establish sustained INR strength vs the USD,"
The rupee was trading at 79.88 per U.S. dollar on Friday, barely changed from the previous session.
The rupee has been hovering just above the 80 levels in recent sessions on the back of expectations that the RBI will sell dollars to prevent the currency from falling below its record low of 80.0650.
The return of foreign portfolio flows to equity has kept the rupee pegged to the near-80 level. Foreign inflows into Indian equities hit almost $6 billion so far in August. "We believe the global growth slowdown story could act as a headwind to positive equity inflow momentum," Mr. Kundu flagged.
In addition, a failure by the Federal Reserve to pivot to a dovish stance and reinstate its objective to contain inflation, would reverse some of the recent momentum in equity portfolio inflows, he pointed out.
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