Non-Yadav OBC calculus remains a tested formula for BJP in Lok Sabha bypolls

The party’s strategy of fielding candidates from non-Yadav OBC social groups in bypolls has once again come to the fore as it gears up to wrest Mainpuri from the Samajwadi Party

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) nominating Raghuraj Singh Shakya, who belongs to Shakya – an Other Backward Classes (OBC) community – as its candidate for the high-pitched Mainpuri bypoll in Uttar Pradesh, the saffron party’s tried and tested strategy of fielding a candidate from a non-Yadav OBC social group that represents a sizeable population in that particular constituency though not having the numerical or political strength across the State, has once again come to the fore.

In U.P., which sends 80 members to Lok Sabha and happens to be the ruling BJP‘s epicentre of political stability, it has devised this interesting social combination for Parliamentary bypolls since its rise in the electoral horizon of the State in 2014.

The strategy to give candidature to numerically lesser significant non-Yadav OBCs is contrary to the BJP’s ticket distribution in Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha polls, in which it gives higher representation to the upper castes.

Since 2014, when the saffron party made an upsurge in the State under Narendra Modi, five of the last seven Lok Sabha bypolls (all were high-stake battles) have seen the party giving candidature to non-Yadav OBC nominees who were numerically weaker State-wide. This includes prestigious seats like Mainpuri, Phulpur, Rampur and Kairana. Apart from Azamgarh, where the party repeated a Yadav nominee, it has restrained from giving ticket to Yadavs.

Available data show that for the Mainpuri bypoll held in 2014, after Mulayam Singh Yadav vacated the seat and retained Azamgarh, the saffron party made Prem Singh Shakya its candidate against the Samajwadi Party’s (SP) Tej Pratap Singh Yadav. It was the first election in Mainpuri where the BJP got more than three lakh votes, which gave the party belief that it would breach the ultimate citadel of the SP. Shakya is not considered as a dominant group within the OBC pyramid of U.P., like Yadavs, Kurmis or Kushwahas.

In the 2004 Parliamentary polls when the saffron party was in power at the Centre, it gave candidature to Ram Babu Kushwaha from Mainpuri. However, Mr. Kushwaha polled only around 14,000 votes and lost deposit. Kushwahas are considered a dominant agrarian OBC group in the Hindi belt.

The BJP strategists believe that putting a non-Yadav OBC candidate from a social group which has good representation in a particular constituency, but is not numerically or electorally dominant across the State, helps the party get a major chunk of votes from its loyal upper caste base as these candidates wouldn’t be seen as a threat to the upper castes’ political domination. Moreover, the move helps the party to get both Brahmins and Rajputs stand side by side in the bypolls.