Nepal’s March 5 vote: Waves, coalitions, and the new guard on the cards

Nepal's March 5 elections see veteran leaders challenged by youth-driven coalitions, with the Rastriya Swatantra Party poised for a breakthrough.

As Nepal goes to polls on March 5, many wonder whether this vote could become a re-run of 2008.

The difference is that 18 years ago, the Maoists, who had come overground just two years earlier after ending the decade-long insurgency, swept the elections. This time, it could be the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), riding on a strong anti-incumbency sentiment.

Where is Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda contesting from? He has chosen a constituency in Rukum — a Maoist stronghold during the insurgency.

Mr. Dahal, 71, a three-time Prime Minister, is facing a tough contest now. Until July 2024, he had managed to switch sides — between the CPN-UML and the Nepali Congress — to remain Prime Minister, despite his party finishing third in the 2022 elections.

UML’s K.P. Sharma Oli is contesting from Jhapa-5, where he has lost only one of the seven elections since the restoration of democracy in Nepal in 1990. Mr. Oli suffered a defeat in 2008 when the Maoist wave was unprecedented.

This time, however, Mr. Oli, 74, is likely to face an uphill challenge due to a visible groundswell for the RSP, which has fielded Balendra Shah in Jhapa-5. Mr. Shah, 35, who resigned as Kathmandu’s mayor to make a foray into parliamentary politics, remains a hugely popular figure.