Millions of tourists, billions of dollars: What Middle East stands to lose if war continues

The Middle East attracts about five per cent of international tourists and 14 per cent of global transit traffic.

The US-Israel-Iran War has disrupted not just oil markets but also global travel, especially in the Middle East. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council, the region is losing at least $600 million in visitor spending per day due to declining travel demand.

The Middle East attracts about five per cent of international tourists and 14 per cent of global transit traffic. Hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, which used to handle over half a million passengers daily, have experienced closures, affecting both tourists and connecting passengers.

Within the first two days of the conflict, which began on February 28, more than 5,000 flights were cancelled due to airspace disruptions across various Gulf nations, and security concerns forced airlines to suspend or reroute operations.

Before the conflict began, international tourists were expected to spend around $207 billion in the region in 2026. International tourist arrivals to the Middle East were projected to grow by around 13 per cent this year. That outlook has now reversed.

According to Oxford Economics, arrivals could fall by 27 per cent if the conflict is prolonged. This could translate into a loss of 38 million visitors compared to earlier forecasts, and could rack up revenue losses of up to $56 billion.

As much of the Gulf airspace remains closed due to security concerns, flights are being rerouted. This is resulting in increased travel time and, ultimately, higher fuel costs — a problem that compounds with a looming energy crisis also caused by the war. Airlines are likely to pass these costs on to passengers through higher fares.