Kenney's great test: How the Alberta premier could pull off a political comeback

Jason Kenney may think "Alberta is back," but can the embattled leader push back the considerable forces imperiling his premiership?

Kenney, no doubt, faces some tough political challenges in the year ahead, including a United Conservative Party (UCP) leadership review, more potential discontent from within his caucus, a frontal assault from an old political rival and grumpy Alberta voters who don't have much respect, according to at least one poll, for the premier a year and a half away from the next provincial election.     "He is as unpopular as any leader in Alberta history has ever been," stresses Calgary-based pollster Janet Brown, who has had her finger on the pulse of Alberta voters for more than two decades. 

Making a comeback would be unprecedented, adds Brown. 

But Kenney has a reputation for tactical politics and savvy communication skills. And the UCP leader seems determined to hold onto power, saying recently he feels more confident in his leadership than he has for a "very long time." 

But will a re-tooled and re-packaged political communication strategy be enough for Kenney to overcome what polls have suggested is a looming electoral defeat for the UCP? 

A UCP insider, who spoke to CBC News anonymously because they were not authorized to speak, acknowledges the governing party has not had many communication wins in the past year. In fact, the UCPer concedes Kenney's government's communication has been too fly-by-the-seat-of-its-pants since the beginning of the pandemic.   The UCP politico adds the government should look to retool its messaging and signal that it is much more understanding in the coming months in an effort to regain Albertans' trust.     "The current premier is … in a tough spot, there's no doubt about it, '' Evan Menzies, the former Director of Communications for the United Conservative Party and current campaign strategist with Crestview Strategy, told CBC News in an interview.    But Menzies thinks a come-from-behind rebound is possible for Kenney, who he describes as a political scrapper who "can fight back and regain some political momentum," especially if he focuses on the economy.

Kenney has recently trumpeted Alberta's potential economic recovery amidst high energy prices.    Menzie thinks spotlighting the potential economic green shoots sprouting in the wake of the global novel coronavirus pandemic could help the premier regain public support.    "I personally am a big fan of the message of 'Alberta is back' when it comes to the economy," says Menzies.    The UCP swept to power in 2019 with the bumper sticker promise of "jobs, pipelines and the economy."

In recent months, Alberta's economy revved once again on high prices for oil and gas. Still, economists continue to worry about the long-term viability of the prairie province's reliance on fossil fuels to pay the government's bills and keep fueling the economy.  

While high oil prices definitely help the provincial government's bottom line, Andrew Leach, environmental economist and associate professor with the University of Alberta's School of Business, recently opined that "it's going to take a lot more than that to make it feel like a boom again for the people of Alberta."

"The government might be giddy with the improved projections," Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams told CBC's West of Centre podcast recently.

But Williams is also skeptical that Albertans feel like they are back from the economic chaos triggered by the pandemic. 

As well, Williams thinks the range of issues Albertans care about has broadened in the wake of COVID-19. 

The very real threat of Alberta's well-funded healthcare system collapsing during the dreary days of the fourth wave of the pandemic focused public attention on healthcare. 

Public concern lingers. The fourth wave alone forced the cancellation of as many as 15,000 surgeries. Experts say understanding the full impact of the lengthy backlog is hard.