Iran’s presidential contenders face hurdle of voter apathy

Iran's presidential run-off election faces a risk of low turnout due to voter apathy, Massoud Pezeshkian and Saeed Jalili are the contenders

A zealous anti-Westerner and the low-key moderate hoping to become Iran’s next president could struggle to mobilise millions of supporters on July 5’s run-off election amid voter apathy about a tightly-controlled contest.

Over 60% of voters abstained from the June 28 ballot for a successor to Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash, a historic low turnout which critics of the government see as a vote of no confidence in the Islamic Republic. The run-off election will be a tight race between lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in the original field of four candidates, and former Revolutionary Guards member Saeed Jalili.

Both candidates have sought to engage voters by offering competing visions, with Jalili offering hawkish foreign and domestic policies and Pezeshkian advocating more social and political freedoms. Both pledge to revive the economy, plagued by mismanagement, state corruption, and sanctions reimposed since 2018 over Iran's nuclear programme.

The clerical establishment needs a high turnout for its own credibility, particularly as it faces regional tension over the war between Israel and Iranian ally Hamas in Gaza, and increased Western pressure over its fast-advancing nuclear programme.

But growing numbers of Iranians have abstained at elections in recent years. The previous record low turnout was 41% in a parliamentary election in March, while Raisi won in 2021 on a turnout of about 49%, in which authorities disqualified heavy-weight conservative and moderate rivals.

"The run-off is a clash of visions: Jalili's hardline ideology versus Pezeshkian's call for essential moderation and change," said Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group. "Beyond opposing Jalili, Pezeshkian must compete with voter apathy and secure at least some votes from this critical silent majority to win the election."

The next president is not expected to usher in any major policy shift on Iran's nuclear programme or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei calls all the shots on top state matters.