India’s 100 mn barrel crude stocks could cover 40-45 days if Hormuz flows disrupted

India's 100 million barrels of crude oil can sustain 40-45 days of supply amid potential disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

India holds about 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks — in storage tanks, underground strategic reserves and on ships voyaging towards the country — which could cover roughly 40-45 days of its requirement if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.

India imports about 88% of the crude oil it needs — the raw material for fuels such as petrol and diesel — with more than 50% supplied by Middle Eastern countries and transiting the narrow Strait of Hormuz, flows from which have been disrupted amid the Iran crisis.

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If Middle Eastern crude supply were to halt completely for a temporary period, the immediate impact would be logistical and price-driven, with supply risks intensifying if movement through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted for longer, said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modeling at Kpler.

A closure of Strait of Hormuz would at first impact prompt cargo liftings. "However, refiners typically maintain commercial inventories, and cargoes already on water would continue to arrive, providing some short-term cushioning to the system," he said adding in the event of a prolonged disruption, medium-term pressures would build through higher import costs, freight exposure and the need to reroute supplies over longer distances.

"The country maintains strategic petroleum reserves alongside commercial inventories held by refiners and oil marketing companies. These buffers are intended to manage temporary supply shocks rather than sustained outages," he said. "Based on Kpler inventory data, commercial crude stocks are around 100 million barrels, including volumes in the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) facilities at Mangalore, Padur and Visakhapatnam."