If there's a tug-of-war over conservatism, only one side is really pulling

Last week, two former candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party announced new bids for power and influence.

Rick Peterson, who finished 12th in the Conservative leadership race of 2017, announced that the Centre Ice Canadians, an organization he launched last year, is looking to establish a new "centrist" political party. And Maxime Bernier, who finished second in 2017, announced he would be running in a byelection in the Manitoba riding of Portage-Lisgar under the banner of his own People's Party.

In theory, this might mean Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will soon face duelling challenges from both the right and the middle. In reality, the reactionary forces that Bernier represents seem more powerful than Peterson's project might ever be.

If this is a tug-of-war, only one side is really pulling.

In Bernier's telling, the Conservative Party is unwilling or unable to fight the necessary "cultural battles." Stephen Harper's former foreign minister once sold himself as a principled libertarian whose calling card was a promise to abolish supply management. He has since found other interests.

Turning up in Manitoba last Thursday, he vowed to fight the "woke cult" that is apparently "demolishing the traditional pillars of our society and aims to establish a twisted and profoundly sick vision of the future." In his remarks to supporters, his grievances included "cultural marxists," "transgenderism," "drag queen story hour in our schools and libraries" and "moral and cultural degeneracy," as well as "mass immigration," "climate hysteria" and the "cult of diversity." 

Such stuff might create room for Poilievre to present himself as a reasonable conservative in contrast to Bernier's divisive extremism. But that might be difficult as long as Poilievre also seems inclined to chase the anti-woke vote.

A day before Bernier's campaign announcement, Poilievre decided to attack a decision by teachers at a Quebec elementary school to replace their traditional marking of Mother's Day with a celebration of all parents — a decision reportedly made out of consideration for students who don't have a mother or father or who are currently in foster care.

"The woke wants to delete Mother's Day," Poilievre tweeted. "This ugly and weird ideology — which [Justin] Trudeau endorsed at his party convention — wants to delete everything except the state which would control everything and everyone."

Maybe Poilievre would be tweeting about the sinister forces apparently trying to deny mothers their special day even if Bernier and the People's Party didn't exist. But the Conservatives don't seem unbothered by Bernier's arrival in Portage-Lisgar.

"Maxime Bernier has always been an opportunist. He will go anywhere, say anything and take any position just to bask in a spotlight," Conservative House leader Andrew Scheer tweeted on the day Bernier declared his candidacy. "I know from experience: he is always more focused on his own self-promotion than on any of the issues he claims to care about."

Scheer then went to Manitoba to make that case against Bernier in person.

It's hard to imagine Bernier actually winning that byelection in Manitoba. Even if the PPC candidate finished second in Portage-Lisgar in 2021, the Conservatives still won the riding by more than 30 points.

But Bernier doesn't need to win to be successful. He just needs to show that he can still draw significant support and pull votes away from the Conservative Party.