From 50% tariffs to trade deal: What's behind Trump's change of heart for India?
India Today
Donald Trump's abrupt shift from tariff threats and sharp criticism of India to warm praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a reduced-tariff trade deal has surprised diplomatic and trade circles. What's behind Trump's change of heart for India?
For months, Donald Trump had India firmly in his crosshairs, calling it a “tariff king,” threatening steep trade penalties, and accusing New Delhi of indirectly fuelling the Russia-Ukraine war through its purchase of Russian oil. Then, abruptly, the rhetoric softened. From public praise for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to talk of a sweeping trade agreement, Trump’s sudden shift in tone has caught diplomatic and trade circles off guard.
On Monday night, Trump announced the year-long due trade deal with India after call with "greatest friend" PM Modi. As part of the deal, Trump agreed to reduce tariffs from 50% to 18%. It wasn't just a simple announcement, it was a post loaded with honey and sugar as Trump said the decision was made "out of friendship and respect," PM Modi.
The reversal has sparked a key question: what changed? Analysts point to a mix of strategic, economic and geopolitical factors: from India’s growing leverage on the global stage to recent high-profile trade moves that may have altered Washington’s calculations. Whether driven by real concessions, competitive pressure, or political expediency, Trump’s change of heart marks a notable moment in the evolving India-US relationship.
Trump sways and swings like few others, making it difficult to pin his shifts to a single cause without doing injustice to his famously unpredictable nature. That said, the mood does appear to have turned in India’s favour, particularly after last month’s much-touted “mother of all trade deals” with the European Union.
If we go by Trump's word, India agreeing to stop buying Russian oil could be the biggest reason.
"It was an Honour to speak with Prime Minister Modi, of India, this morning. He is one of my greatest friends and a powerful and respected leader of his country. We spoke about many things, including trade, and ending the War with Russia and Ukraine. He agreed to stop buying Russian oil, and to buy much more from the United States and, potentially, Venezuela," Trump posted on Truth Social.
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