Danielle Smith's UCP leadership test: here's what history says about how safe she is
CBC
If history is anything to go by, Premier Danielle Smith's job should be safe after her leadership review — as long as more than seven in 10 United Conservative Party members vote to endorse her.
That could be asking a lot of a party grassroots that pushed out their last leader.
Only 51.2 per cent of members backed Jason Kenney two years ago, and there are activists looking to undermine Smith's support this week in Red Deer.
A group named the 1905 Committee (the year Alberta became a province) sent thousands of party members an email this week criticizing Smith's changes to the Bill of Rights — changes she appears to have tailored to her party's wishes.
The letter said the attempt to "appease freedom-minded base" didn't go far enough, and may actually weaken individual freedoms in Alberta.
"Is this what you expected from our premier? Is this how she plans on keeping all of her promises?" wrote Nadine Wellwood, leader of the 1905 Committee. "You be the judge and cast your decision at the AGM."
Meanwhile six MLAs and cabinet ministers recorded a finish-each-others'-sentences video in praise of their boss that the UCP caucus posted online this week.
"At our AGM in Red Deer this November, I'm voting for Danielle Smith…" Forestry Minister Todd Loewen began. Chestermere-Strathmore backbencher Chantelle de Jonge finished: "... to continue leading our United Conservative family. Stand with me."
And that's just the party machinations visible above the surface. As there are with all party leadership reviews, there is likely more jostling, cajoling, rumour-mongering and scheming that occurs in private.
How will this vote Saturday in Red Deer go down?
CBC News asked that question of 20 UCP and government insiders with a sense of the party's mood — including some who remain loyal and others pushing for Smith's ouster.
Given the unpredictability of the UCP membership (Kenney's low score was a stunner to his inner circle), few were certain about the outcome; many of the people contacted gave an estimated range.
Only one predicted an outright loss for Smith, and nobody guessed the leader would get higher than 85 per cent support. The average of the predictions was 69 per cent.
That score may put Smith in a perilous, uncertain zone.
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