Danielle Smith bets public money for an arena can win votes. It's not worked before

Among the lessons we learn with the new Calgary Flames arena deal is this: a surefire way to settle any impasse is with giant bags of cash worth $330 million, stamped with a Government of Alberta crest.

The UCP, Danielle Smith and the rest of Albertans are about to learn another big lesson: whether or not it's politically beneficial, in 2023, to provide a massive public subsidy for the benefit of a major private sports organization.

Because we know the answer to that question has been squarely a negative the last two times it was asked, in Calgary civic elections in 2017 and 2021.

In 2017, a principal position of Mayor Naheed Nenshi's re-election bid was his skepticism to an arena deal the Flames owners had put forth. Those sideways glances were popular enough to secure him a third term.

In the subsequent election to chart Calgary's post-Nenshi future, mayoral hopeful Jeff Davison was the ranking booster for the "event centre" project, while fellow councillors Jyoti Gondek and Jeromy Farkas were more critical. The arena's champion was the choice of only 13 per cent of Calgarians, finishing in third place even in Davison's own ward.

But there was Smith, a Flames sweater beneath her overcoat at a joint news conference, positioning herself as the willing financier and saviour of the on-again, off-again arena venture. She wasn't shy about using her government position to declare, boldly and publicly, that re-electing her party was necessary to lock in this deal.

This was no off-the-cuff, politically opportunistic remark. She underlined it in flame-red marker in a news release hours after the announcement Tuesday: "To be clear, a vote for the UCP is also a vote for moving full steam ahead with this arena project."

This is Smith's major gamble — that the provincial politics on this are different than municipal, and that the Calgary mood on arena-building has shifted since 2017 and 2021. (Or 2012, when Smith was chasing votes as Wildrose leader, and promised no provincial dollars for the Edmonton Oilers' costly arena.)

The history of voters' distaste for publicly subsidizing pro sports venues will surely weigh against Smith. But is there something to be said of the public's evolving desire just to get something done, finally, and bid adieu to the Saddledome?

Almost seven years have passed since Edmonton got its largely city-funded Oilers venue, the sleek Rogers Place with that plaza the city's hockey fans have thronged to during playoff games.

And that city now gets more concerts by major acts, whose fancy light-and-video setups are too much for the Saddledome's concave roof to support.

Perhaps the "what about us?!" sentiment has grown, now that the Flames venue has become the National Hockey League's oldest.

Ultimately, more Calgarians might now think it's worth digging deeper into the taxpayer purse to get Son of Saddledome constructed.

And sheesh, there's a lot more purse needed for this project than there was in 2019, when the project tab was $550 million. Now, it's $800 million for the pro sports venue itself, rising to $1.2 billion when all supporting costs are added in.