China's EV market is going global. Can U.S., Canada balance protectionism with reducing emissions?

China's electric vehicle industry is poised to dominate the globe, and that has governments in Europe and North America, including Canada, grappling with how to meet ambitious targets for reaching 100 per cent zero-emission vehicle sales through domestic manufacturing.

"In the last five years or so, China emerged as an absolute leader in [the EV] space," said Alla Kolesnikova, head of data and analytics at Adamas Intelligence, a research and consulting firm specializing in strategic metals and minerals based in Toronto. 

As a result, the U.S. has raised tariffs on EVs from China. The Canadian government is now exploring whether to follow suit.

Meanwhile, both countries have set aggressive goals for getting substantially more EVs on the road to reduce reliance on fossil fuels. 

The federal government's electric vehicle sales mandate regulations include a national target of 100 per cent zero-emission vehicle sales in Canada by 2035. The U.S. is aiming to have between 35 per cent and 56 per cent of all vehicle sales between 2030 and 2032 be EVs.

The problem, according to many analysts, is that both countries have a long way to go before their EV industries becoming self-sustaining. 

Many industry watchers say it will take a lot of political will — and money — for Canada to develop its own industry and spur adoption without relying on Chinese car makers. 

According to Statistics Canada, zero-emission vehicles accounted for just over 10 per cent of all new motor vehicle registrations in 2023, an increase of 49.4 per cent from 2022. 

However, moving past these early adopters will be a challenge, according to Niel Hiscox, president of Clarify Group Inc., a Canadian-based automotive research and advisory firm.

Hiscox says the higher upfront costs will mean a "a good chunk" of consumers will decide not to buy it. "You can't make the transition if the cars aren't there, if they're not affordable."

Commenting on the "chicken and egg" situation of building more capacity in Canada, Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association told CBC's Metro Morning, as they build up capacity, prices should come down. As prices come down, more people will buy EVs and as they do, more charging stations will be built.

"If you agree that we're in a climate emergency, we need to do everything we can to encourage people to make a switch," said Cara Clairman, CEO of Plug n Drive, a non-profit committed to accelerating electric vehicle adoption in Canada.

Clairman says provinces like B.C. and Quebec have a higher adoption rate because of charging infrastructure, government subsidies and policies to encourage EV adoption.

China's dominance can be attributed to a few factors, including the cheap cost of the vehicles and the fact there's a wide variety to choose from, according to Kolesnikova.