Working on a Muslim-Dalit alliance, the Bahujan Samaj Party is in wait-and-watch mode

It has chosen not to contest the upcoming bypolls in Uttar Pradesh

The absence of the Bahujan Samaj Party in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh byelections has made poll pundits curious about where the party’s trusted vote bank will shift on December 5. Though the BSP traditionally keeps off byelections, it bucked the practice after the debacle in the Assembly election when its vote percentage plummeted to a historic low of 12.88%, by contesting the Azamgarh Lok Sabha election earlier this year. It returned with around 29% votes and ensured the victory of the ruling party in the Samajwadi Party (SP) bastion.

Experts expected the BSP supremo Mayawati to continue cornering the SP. The idea was bolstered by the BSP’s renewed Muslim outreach when it put firebrand leader Imran Masood in charge of western Uttar Pradesh. Simultaneously, the party started sidelining its Brahmin faces, suggesting a change in the formula of social engineering from Brahmin-Dalit to a Muslim-Dalit alliance. With AIMIM Chief Asaduddin Owaisi praising the BSP supremo in Gujarat, it seemed likely that a section of Muslims wanted to give Mayawati another chance.

However, sources in the party said participation in the Azamgarh bypoll was to showcase that the BSP was still a force to reckon with. “This time the strategy is to wait and watch and let the SP prove its credentials as the primary contender to defeat the BJP. Whoever loses will look towards us,” said a senior BSP leader.

Political observers and sources on the ground suggested that in the absence of the BSP, the BJP would become the “swabhavik” (natural) choice of Dalits, particularly in the constituencies where the elections are being held.

In Mainpuri, where Mulayam Singh Yadav was the joint candidate of the SP and the BSP in 2019, the Dalits have traditionally complained about the aggression of Yadavs. In Khatauli, where the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has fielded a Gurjar strongman, the Jats and Gurjars are known to dominate and in Rampur, it is the Muslims.

The way the BJP has mobilised its Dalit leadership in these constituencies in the last few days indicates the party is seriously pursuing the vote bank of the BSP. On the other hand, SP president Akhilesh Yadav is talking of an alliance between the Ambedkarites and the Lohiaites and the RLD is busy raising the slogan: “Bachcha bachcha Bhim ka, RLD ki team ka” (All the followers of Ambedkar are part of the RLD team).

Seema Kushwaha, national spokesperson of the BSP, said there was no direction from the high command on whom to vote for. “The cadre knows what is best for them,” she said. Ms. Mayawati’s statements made in the last couple of months indicated that the BSP chief was maintaining an equal distance from all political parties, Ms. Kushwaha said. “We are preparing to go solo in the Lok Sabha polls and will contest the urban local bodies poll with all our might,” she asserted.