Why is there a pilot shortage? It wasn't just the COVID-19 pandemic.

The pilot shortage has its roots long before the current crunch. Industry leaders saw it coming more than three years ago — before the pandemic — as the global airline industry predicted a record number of passengers and the need for more planes and pilots over the next 20 years.

Then came the pandemic. Amid lockdowns around the world, airlines parked hundreds of planes. And the major U.S. airlines received massive amounts of federal aid — with the express restriction that they had to fly their schedule, and could not furlough or lay any employee off.

But the airlines were desperate to preserve cash. While they couldn't lay anyone off until after the aid ran out, they could offer very attractive early retirement and buyout packages to employees across the board.