Why IMD can't predict weather like US, Europe? Here are the reasons
India Today
Speaking to India Today, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra claimed that there are only 34 radars present in the country as of now. The number has increased by just six in the last 5 years.
Of late, there has been quite a controversy over the monsoon prediction by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Many feel that the weather body is not as efficient as its counterparts in the western countries. Social media is also buzzing with jokes about the weather predictions made by IMD and specifically for Delhi in the last fortnight or so. There were several yellow and orange alerts by the Met department but all of them missed the mark comprehensively. Monsoon forecasts have failed measurably in the case of Delhi.
People are also questioning why an extreme weather incident like a cloud burst at the Amarnath cave can't be forecast by the meteorological experts when the government is spending so much on getting new technology to compare it with the best in the world. These are valid questions up to a certain extent which needs an answer. Although the IMD has categorically clarified that its prediction is the best in the given circumstances, mistakes in predicting smaller weather developments like light rains and drizzles should not be a scale to measure the magnitude of failure.
Even 20 years of data gathered by the Data Intelligence Unit (DIU) of India Today suggested that the seasonal Monsoon predictions have gone wrong for many years during this period. The data also suggests that IMD predictions have improved marginally during the last 5 years but still need improvement. India Today talked to specialists, both in the IMD and outside, to find out why India is not predicting as accurately as the European countries and US.
Lack of Data to predict accurately through the Numerical Weather Model
The weather prediction models massively depend on the data gathered by highly specialised kinds of equipment. Different tools like Doppler radars, satellite data, Radiosondes, surface observation centers, computing tools, and advanced weather processing systems are needed to predict and forecast weather developments. Although India has added capacity in a few of these areas, it is lagging by a distance from the advanced countries in Europe and America.
Speaking to India Today, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra claimed that there are only 34 radars present in the country as of now. The number has increased by just 6 in the last 5 years. At the same time, the United States of America (USA) does a weather prediction with almost 200 doppler radars. According to the official website of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the USA has 159 doppler radars across its area.
J P Sharma from Skymet said, "The Numerical Weather Model depends on how much data you have given and what the quality of data is. If you provide the wrong information, then it will get rejected. Hence, the quality of data is quite important. We are adding networks but the speed we are adding is very slow and hence we are not getting the required amount of quality data for a pinpointed prediction."
