'Uncertainty is almost as bad as the tariffs themselves': Tariff threat alone hurts Alberta

U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats have been top of mind for Canadians since he took control of the White House, and whether or not that threat actually materializes, some are concerned the uncertainty is already affecting business operations north of the border. 

Originally, Trump said tariffs levied against Canada would land on Jan. 20, his first official day in office. Then, that tariff deadline was pushed to various dates within the month of February. When those new dates rolled around, Trump mused about a March 4 deadline, promising a 25 per cent tariff on virtually all Canadian goods and a tariff on Canadian energy set at 10 per cent. 

After some confusion about what goods would be subject to tariffs and when, earlier this week the deadline for tariffs against Canada seemed to shift to April 2, but as of Thursday morning, the president had arrived back at March 4 for most tariffs to take effect.

In Alberta, the province that generates significant revenue for the rest of the country, largely thanks to the energy sector, various industries continue to brace for impact as the deadline for tariffs against Canada changes, again and again.

But one economist suggests these last few months of uncertainty are already taking a toll on Alberta's economy.

Charles St-Arnaud, chief economist with Alberta Central, which represents the province's credit unions, says the focus may be less about the actual deadline and more about the risk that threat stirs up within Canadian industries.

"Many businesses that have a big level of operation and activity in the U.S. are reconsidering, 'Can I continue to do what I do with the threat … with the risk of having tariffs in three months, six months, or maybe a year from now?'" said St-Arnaud.

He noted that companies with activities mostly in the U.S. may decide at some point to leave Canada if the uncertainty persists.

St-Arnaud believes that, regardless of when or if the tariffs actually come into effect, the threat alone is enough to have an impact on Alberta's economy, referring to it as "death by a thousand cuts."

"It's no longer just economics," he said. "It's politics, it's international relations. There's so many different angles to the situation that cannot be ignored."

For independent businesses operating in Alberta, the idea of investing in an uncertain future could feel like a bad idea. 

"Uncertainty is almost as bad as the tariffs themselves because that causes businesses to have to put the brakes on all sorts of stuff," said Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business.

Kelly is concerned the uncertainty and chaotic messaging coming from inside the Oval Office may actually be Trump's end goal, as it drives behaviour for businesses. Kelly is concerned small businesses are already starting to look for ways to run leaner by thinning their head count or delaying planned expansions.

It means the president may be successfully undermining the Canadian economy with these threats alone, essentially positioning the U.S. as a stronger, more reliable place to do business in.