UCP supporters favour Smith, Jean and Toews as top 3 contenders in leadership race, poll shows
CBC
United Conservative supporters are leaning toward three top contenders in the party's leadership race, according to a new poll — but one political scientist says its results aren't a sure indicator of who's on top.
The recent poll from Canadian research company Leger asked UCP supporters which of the candidates they felt would make the best party leader. Former Wildrose Party leaders Danielle Smith (with 22 per cent) and Brian Jean (20 per cent) had the most support, while former finance minister Travis Toews followed with 15 per cent.
Duane Bratt, political scientist at Mount Royal University, said something important to remember is that this poll was not a survey of UCP members, who will be the ones deciding the party's next leader.
"I think [the poll] tells us who the wider population has name recognition of," Bratt said.
"It doesn't help us understand how the leadership race is going to work because to do that you would need access to the actual membership list."
Even if the poll did survey UCP members, Bratt said having a preferential ballot in the actual race makes it hard to predict who might come out on top.
The poll surveyed 1,025 Albertans aged 18 and older. Among them, 351 were identified as UCP supporters, indicating they would vote for the party if a provincial election was held today. Surveys were conducted online between July 15 and 17. Results were weighted according to age, gender and region based on 2016 Census data, the Leger website states.
A margin of error was not stated as the poll was a non-probability survey, according to Leger.
Bratt said it's not surprising the former Wildrose leaders and a former provincial minister are the candidates with the greatest name recognition.
Andrews Enns, an executive vice-president at Leger, said even though the poll didn't survey party members, the results shouldn't be completely discounted in predicting the next UCP leader.
"Party members are also members of the public and so I think there will be … some reflection of this in terms of where things currently are," Enns said.
While the poll may not indicate who UCP members favour, name recognition could still be an important factor in determining which candidates can rally the most membership support, according to Bratt.
"If you're going to sell memberships, people have to know who you are," he said.
Former cabinet minister Rajan Sawhney received zero per cent support in the poll.
Intelligence regarding foreign interference sometimes didn't make it to the prime minister's desk in 2021 because Canada's spy agency and the prime minister's national security adviser didn't always see eye to eye on the nature of the threat, according to a recent report from one of Canada's intelligence watchdogs.