The counting still isn't done in B.C.'s election. Here's what happens next

David Eby will be premier, but the results of B.C.'s provincial election still aren't completely finalized.

A pair of judicial recounts next week will determine whether the B.C. NDP forms a majority or minority government.

Forty-seven seats are needed in order to form a majority and right now the NDP is elected in 46, and leading in one.

That riding is Surrey-Guildford which, as of Monday, saw the NDP's Garry Begg ahead of Honveer Singh Randhawa of the Conservative Party of B.C. by just 27 votes.

That margin is too small for the CBC News decision desk to project a winner before a judicial recount is complete — a mandatory measure any time the margin of victory is within 1/500th of all votes cast in a specific riding.

A judicial recount will also be held in Kelowna Centre, where the Conservative candidate leads the NDP by 38 votes, but for which the CBC decision desk has already projected the Conservatives will win.

Overseen by a B.C. Supreme Court judge, the recounts must take place within 15 days of the declaration of the official election results, which happened on Oct. 28.

On Wednesday, court orders set the judicial recounts for both ridings to take place Nov. 7-8. 

It is normal for counts and recounts to carry on long after election day but it is rare for them to be so consequential. That's because, generally speaking, onlookers can mathematically predict who winners will be even before all the votes are tallied.

For example, on election night in B.C., the first two ridings were called for the B.C. Conservatives within twenty minutes of the polls being closed, despite the fact there were still dozens of ballots to be counted.

That's because organizations like CBC News were able to calculate the number of votes in the riding and the number of votes for the Conservative candidates, and determine that the lead was so large that there was no way for the NDP or any other party to win.

Those first two ridings were Prince George-Mackenzie, which saw Conservative candidate Kiel Giddens win by more than 5,000 votes, and Nechako Lakes, where Conservative Leader John Rustad took home a nearly 68 per cent vote share.

Similarly in Saskatchewan, where a provincial election was held this past Monday, CBC News and others were able to project a majority government for the Saskatchewan Party before projecting the results of several ridings, including two which are still in play.

When a clear winner emerges early on, little attention is paid to the counting of other ballots that were sent in by mail or by absentee voters.