Study maps future glacial lakes Premium

IIT Guwahati researchers identify 493 high-risk sites for future glacial lakes in the Eastern Himalayas to enhance disaster preparedness.

GUWAHATI: A team of researchers from the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati (IIT-G) has developed a new way to identify where glacial lakes are likely to form in the Himalayas, offering a potential breakthrough in disaster preparedness for mountain regions facing rapid climate change.

Their study focuses on the Eastern Himalayas, which has recorded the highest frequency of glacial lake outburst floods, or GLOFs, in the entire mountain range. These sudden floods occur when natural dams holding back glacial lakes collapse, releasing vast volumes of water, debris and sediment downstream.

The findings of this research have been published in Nature Scientific Reports journal. The paper has been co-authored by Ajay Dashora of IIT-G’s Department of Civil Engineering, along with his research scholar Anushka Vashistha and Afroz Ahmad Shah of the Universiti of Brunei Darussalam.

GLOFs have caused extensive loss of life and damage to infrastructure in the past, including roads, bridges, hydropower projects, and agricultural land. The last major disaster caused by a GLOF was in October 2023 in Sikkim, which killed 94 people, damaged 1,835 houses, displaced 2,563 people, and swept a 1,200-megawatt dam away.

According to the researchers, the number and size of glacial lakes are increasing as glaciers retreat faster due to rising temperatures, heightening the risk to downstream communities.

While earlier studies largely relied on climate data to assess glacial lake hazards, the new research takes a different approach. It places geomorphology—the physical shape and structure of the land—at the centre of prediction.