Smaller Tory mandate than hoped for, no seat for Crombie and other takeaways from the Ont. election

While Doug Ford and his Progressive Conservatives' third majority win was obviously the most significant development of this week's Ontario election, but Thursday night's results also brought other political ramifications.

That includes vindication of the PC party's strategy of making the campaign about U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threat, and successfully selling Ford as the best leader to deal with it.

"The Conservatives correctly calculated that that this would be the ballot question because of what's happening with the Trump administration and [that] Mr. Ford would do well on that ballot question," said Jonathan Malloy, political science professor at Carleton University in Ottawa.

Another takeaway is whether the costly snap election was worth it, or just "a $190 million exercise in preserving the status quo," said Andrea Lawlor, an associate professor of political science at McMaster University in Hamilton.

"We saw so little movement in terms of seats." 

According to the unofficial results, the PCs were elected or leading with 80 seats, followed by the NDP with 27, the Liberals with 14, the Greens with 2 and one seat held by an independent candidate.

Here are some key party takeaways from the results by party:

Ford became the first Ontario leader to win a third majority since 1959. His party is currently elected or leading in 80 seats — just one more than they had when the legislature dissolved in January, and three fewer than the party picked up in its 2022 majority win.

This means the Conservatives will retain around 65 per cent of the total seat count in the Ontario legislature.

Although a huge victory, the party had been hoping for a larger share Queen's Park, in the 90- or 90-plus seat range. Ford himself, when announcing back in January that he would be triggering an election, said they needed the "largest mandate in Ontario's history to move this province forward."

To that end, the PCs had targeted a number of ridings they had hoped they could flip, but were mostly unsuccessful.

However, Lawlor noted that while much attention is on the overall number of PC seats, it's also important to consider the extra time they've secured to govern with a solid majority.

"At the end of the day, 90 seats or 83 seats, a majority can get the job done in the legislature without the support of the Opposition."

Some polling had suggested NDP Leader Marit Stiles may not have fared well election night, and that her party was going to lose ground to the Liberals. They did end up with a lower vote share (around 18.6 per cent) total than the Liberals (around 30 per cent.)