Sask. modelling predicts Omicron-fuelled surge in COVID-19 cases without new measures
CBC
Modelling released by the province Tuesday predicts a huge spike in COVID-19 cases in Saskatchewan because of the Omicron coronavirus variant if no additional restrictions are implemented.
The modelling predicts daily cases could rise to more than 300 per day by Jan. 20, with case numbers doubling every five days, if no changes are made to pandemic measures like mask use and proof of vaccination rules.
Despite the projections, no new restrictions were announced during an online press conference held Tuesday morning.
Saskatchewan Chief Medical Health Officer Dr. Saqib Shahab said if there is a surge in cases, he will recommend maximum capacity be limited to 50 per cent in public places.
For now, he recommends people reduce their contacts by 50 per cent.
"We know that over the next two or four weeks, Omicron will become the predominant [coronavirus] strain in Saskatchewan," Shahab said.
"We will see an increase in transmission … but we want to keep our numbers as low as possible while doing all the things that we can currently do and keep the slope as gradual as possible."
The modelling does suggest that with stronger public health interventions, case numbers could actually drop.
The province also cautions its modelling scenarios are preliminary, with uncertainty due to limited evidence, particuarly around the severity of COVID-19 cases caused by Omicron.
Shahab said early reports from other jurisdictions suggest the Omicron variant may cause less severe illness than the Delta variant has.
The early data also suggests that vaccines provide good protection from hospitalization in Omicron cases, and that the efficacy of vaccines against Omicron rises significantly after a third dose.
"That is great news for us as individuals, especially if you're vaccinated and now boosted, that vaccines and boosters will continue to protect us," Shahab said.
"But of course, if it's more transmissible and [if] we see twice the number of cases, that kind of balances out the benefit from it being less severe."
So far, the province has identified more than 80 COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant, but none have led to hospitalization, Shahab said.
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