Sask. academics speak on political, economic implications of provincial budget
CBC
Saskatchewan's 2022-23 budget, released Wednesday, has garnered plenty of reaction. After the budget's release, CBC's Sam Maciag sat down with two Regina-based academics to get their impressions.
Jim Farney is director and an associate professor at the Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy and Jason Childs is an associate professor of economics at the University of Regina.
The interview has been edited for clarity.
Maciag: Are there any clear winners in this budget?
Farney: I don't think there is any big single winner. If you think of the economic times we've just come through, [it's] a remarkably get-back-to-the-steady-state-path budget. Thinking of it politically though, I think the government has pulled off a really interesting trick.
They're a Conservative government, they've got some populist leanings, but they've managed to put together a budget and a long-term plan in which Saskatchewan is open to export our resources globally, and it's working really well this year, and we're open to international immigration and it's solving some key policy problems for us. That is a really big strategic picture thing they have won on this year.
The budget is forecasting oil at about $75 U.S. per barrel. We saw Alberta forecast oil at $70. What is the risk-reward here?
Childs: Oil prices today were around $110 a barrel. There is money we were not putting in the budget that we're leaving potentially on the table and could be spent later or used to pay down debt. So that's the upside risk. We've got money that might come in that we haven't allocated to anything.
The downside risk, I don't really see prices being much below the forecast in the coming year.
PST is being added to tickets, sporting events and gym memberships. At a time when people are paying more for everything, won't this feel like piling on?
Farney: I think people are going to notice it. If you go back six or seven years, when they added PST to used cars, there was quite a bit of outcry.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business was criticizing the government [Wednesday] for the planned increase to small business taxes as well. So there are tax increases. They are being criticized for them.
But politically, I think it's safe ground. They are going to annoy some folks. But the people who are annoyed by tax increases are unlikely to vote NDP. I don't think that's a really credible switch. So and they're relatively minor. We're going to notice some people grumble about them, but it's not some sort of massive new tax.
There is some more spending in terms of education and social services, but not a lot in terms of actual increases. Where does this leave those struggling to make ends meet?
Debbie Sinclair may not be ready yet to talk at length about what it will feel like to be able to walk through the front door of her home in Cranberry Portage, Man., but one thing she's sure of: "They're heroes," Sinclair said of the fire crews, volunteers, emergency and Manitoba Hydro workers who for more than a week have been toiling to protect the wildfire-threatened community, which was deemed safe for residents to return to starting at 10 a.m. Sunday.