Russia-North Korea pact could dent China’s influence, but Beijing still holds sway over both

China remains silent as Russia and North Korea strengthen defense ties, posing challenges to Beijing's regional influence and stability.

With no obvious options, China appears to be keeping its distance as Russia and North Korea move closer to each other with a new defence pact that could tilt the balance of power among the three authoritarian states.

Experts say China's leaders are likely fretting over the potential loss of influence over North Korea after its leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the deal this week, and how that could increase instability on the Korean Peninsula. But Beijing may also be struggling to come up with a response because of its conflicting goals: keeping peace in the Koreas while countering the U.S. and its Western allies on the global stage.

Beijing so far has not commented on the deal — which requires both countries to provide defence assistance if the other is attacked — and only reiterated boilerplate statements that it seeks to uphold peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and advance a political settlement of the North-South divide.

The Chinese response has been “very weak," said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, adding that it could be a sign that Beijing doesn't yet know what to do.

“Every option is a bad option,” he said. “You’re either unable to make a decision because of very strongly held competing views or ... you’re just incapable of making a decision because you just don’t know how to evaluate the situation.”

What’s behind the Russia-North Korea security pact? | Explained

Some in Beijing may welcome the Russia-North Korea partnership as a way of pushing back at America's dominance in world affairs, but Mr. Cha said that “there is also a great deal of discomfort” in China, which doesn’t want to lose its sway over its neighbour to Russia, doesn’t want to see a destabilizing nuclear power on its doorstep, and doesn’t want to bring the conflict in Europe to Asia.