Nepal goes to polls amid domestic upheaval and regional power plays

Nepal's March 5 election aims to restore democracy amid recent protests and regional geopolitical tensions.

Nepal is voting on Thursday (March 5, 2026) in its first election since last September’s Gen Z protests that toppled the K.P. Sharma Oli government and led to the dissolution of the House of Representatives.

The sudden eruption of the movement — marked by the unprecedented participation of thousands of young people — and the killing of 19 youth in police firing left the country in shock. The international community, too, was caught off guard. In total, 77 people lost their lives during the two days of protests, making it one of the most violent episodes in Nepal’s recent political history.

After Mr. Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) resigned, an interim government was installed — a move some say breached constitutional boundaries. The March 5 election, hence, is expected to restore constitutional order and bring the democratic process back on track. Yet uncertainty persists over who will ultimately lead the next government.

With a clear majority for any single party highly unlikely, analysts predict a return to a hung Parliament and coalition politics — hallmarks of Nepali democracy in recent years.

“A fractured Parliament, probably the most likely scenario, means that coalition negotiations will play a key role in shaping what comes next,” said Sanjay Upadhya, a U.S.-based Nepali author of the book Nepal and the Geostrategic Rivalry between China and India. “The journey ahead is twofold. Not only do parties need to find common ground, but they also have to manage differences within their ranks.”

Nepal’s economic dependence on India remains substantial, with more than two-thirds of its trade conducted with its southern neighbour. The two countries share an approximately 1,800-km-long porous border, which citizens of either country can cross without a visa or passport.