Manitoba NDP bet big on health care, rode wave of discontent with Tories on way to victory

Manitoba's New Democratic Party rode to a resounding victory Tuesday night on the back of long-simmering frustration and anger with the province's Progressive Conservatives — something the governing party couldn't shake, even with a new face at the helm.

The NDP victory also signalled that despite all the noise of the campaign — from escalating PC attack ads in its waning days to a focus on divisive issues, including a vague call for parental rights in schools and a refusal to search a landfill for the remains of two First Nations homicide victims — it was the issues that mattered to voters.

And the winning party's choice of health care as the issue to focus on seems to have been a smart one. That topic made its way into nearly all the NDP's announcements on the campaign trail, and into premier-designate Wab Kinew's victory speech on Tuesday night — where front-line workers were the very first people he addressed.

"To the people in health care, to the people working in the bedside today, to the people thinking of pursuing a career, to health-care workers across the country and other provinces around the world, I have a simple message to you. We need you," Kinew said in a speech to a room filled with ecstatic supporters, as he was surrounded on stage by his wife, Dr. Lisa Monkman, and their children.

Though Kinew was relatively careful in discussing his identity as an Anishinaabe man on the campaign trail, and in addressing Indigenous issues at all, he also used the historic night to connect with young Indigenous people in the audience — perhaps suggesting a shift in approach from Manitoba's first First Nations premier.

"I want to speak to the young neechies out there," he said to loud cheers from the bursting crowd, who were packed shoulder-to-shoulder for most of the night.

"I was given a second chance in life, and I would like to think that I've made good on that opportunity. And you can do the same — here's how. My life became immeasurably better when I stopped making excuses and I started looking for a reason. 

"And I found that reason in our family. I found that reason in our community. And I found that reason in our province and country."

As of late Tuesday night, Kinew's NDP had snagged at least 30 of 57 seats — a double-digit gain from the 18 they clinched in 2019 and a clear victory for the party.

The win comes after recent polling suggested the NDP had taken the lead in the race over the Progressive Conservatives, who had been in power since 2016 and won a second straight majority government in 2019.

But the governing party was unable to rise above a drop in opinion polls it faced during the COVID-19 pandemic, as case numbers spiked during the second and third waves and Manitoba sent dozens of intensive care patients to other provinces because its own hospitals were overwhelmed.

Heather Stefanson later replaced controversial former premier Brian Pallister as PC leader in a hotly contested leadership race in October 2021 — but even two years of a new face ended up falling short of being able to convince many Manitobans the party had changed enough to overcome that sense of discontent.

The Manitoba NDP had been the Official Opposition since being ousted by the Progressive Conservatives in a crushing 2016 defeat that followed a caucus revolt against former leader Greg Selinger — someone the PCs continually tried to link Kinew to this year, even before the campaign officially began.

The results of Manitoba's election send a message that Kinew's vision of revamping the province's health-care system — including the NDP's crown jewel promise to reopen three emergency rooms that were closed under the PC government — may have resonated with voters more than anything else.