Maharashtra 2024 elections: Rural Vidarbha’s poorer districts may shape poll outcome

Insights into Maharashtra's evolving political landscape through urban-rural and regional vote share analysis in recent elections.

The political landscape of Maharashtra has changed dramatically compared to previous elections. Following the split within two major regional parties and the formation of new alliances with national parties, the stage is set for an interesting contest. While the 2014 Assembly elections tested the individual strengths of all the major players, as they fought separately, and the 2019 elections saw familiar partners reuniting, the 2024 elections venture into uncharted territory.

When we depict the past vote shares and seats secured by various parties/alliances by dividing the State into various regions and levels of urbanisation, and then compare the 2014 and 2019 Assembly election outcomes with the 2024 Lok Sabha election results, we get insights into some emerging trends. Tables 1A, 2A, and 3A show the urban-rural split of vote shares and seats secured by various alliances/parties in the 2024 general elections, 2019 Assembly polls, and 2014 Assembly polls.

Table 1A shows the urban-rural split of vote shares and seats secured by various alliances/parties in the 2024 general elections.

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Table 2A shows the urban-rural split of vote shares and seats secured by various alliances/parties in the 2019 Assembly polls.

Table 3A shows the urban-rural split of vote shares and seats secured by various alliances/parties in the 2014 Assembly polls.

In the 2014 Assembly polls, the BJP secured 32% of the urban vote share without any coalition partners. This increased to 46.3% in the 2019 Assembly elections when the party allied with the undivided Shiv Sena. However, if the 2024 general elections are of any indication, the urban dominance of the BJP and its partners will be tested by the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition in the upcoming polls.