Kerala Assembly polls 2026:Triangular battle on the cards in nine seats in Kerala

Kerala Assembly polls 2026 feature a crucial triangular battle in nine constituencies, potentially shaping the election's final outcome.

Major three-cornered contests are happening in at least nine constituencies in Kerala that could even determine the final outcome of the upcoming Assembly election scheduled for April 9.

Of these constituencies, Nemom, Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkkavu, and Aranmula are in the southern part of the State; Pala, Thrissur, and Nattika are in Central Kerala; and Palakkad and Manjeshwaram are in North Kerala. While six of these have MLAs from the Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by Communist Party of India (Marxist), the rest are represented by the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram district is so far the only constituency in Kerala to have elected a member from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to the Assembly. Senior BJP leader O. Rajagopal had defeated K. Sivankutty of the LDF in 2016. Mr. Sivankutty wrested the seat back in the 2021 polls as he defeated Kummanam Rajasekharan of the BJP by a margin of 3,949 votes. K. Muraleedharan of the UDF was pushed to the third spot. The difference in vote share between the LDF and NDA nominees was just around three percentage points. Mr. Sivankutty is now pitted against BJP State president Rajeev Chandrasekhar and K.S. Sabarinadhan of the UDF, who is a councillor in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation and a former MLA.

In Vattiyurkavu too, NDA candidates had finished second in the 2016 (Mr. Rajasekharan) and 2021 elections (V.V. Rajesh). However, the Congress could claim the second spot in the 2019 bypoll when V.K. Prasanth, the incumbent MLA, was first elected to the Assembly. Mr. Prashanth is now seeking a third term. His NDA rival is R. Sreelekha, a former DGP and a councillor in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. The UDF candidate is Mr. K. Muraleedharan, who won the Assembly polls from here in 2011 and 2016.

Kazhakkottam is another segment where the NDA is on a strong wicket. The BJP had finished second here in the previous two elections. In 2021, Kadakampally Surendran of the LDF had defeated Shobha Surendran of the NDA by a margin of 23,497 votes. In 2016, Mr. Surendran’s victory was against the BJP’s V. Muraleedharan by a margin of 7,347 votes. The difference in vote share was 5.48 percentage points. Right now, Mr. Surendran is contesting against Mr. V. Muraleedharan again. The UDF candidate is T. Sharatchandra Prasad, a former MLA. The NDA’s hopes rest on its recent victory in the local body polls in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation.

The BJP is waging a high-stakes battle in the temple town of Aranmula in Pathanamthitta, where Health Minister Veena George of the LDF is seeking a third term. She had defeated K. Sivadasan Nair of the Congress in 2016(by 7,646 votes) and 2021 (by 19,003 votes). The NDA has fielded Mr. Rajasekharan from here in a bid to utilise his popularity during the agitation against the proposed Aranmula Airport. The Congress nominee is Abin Varkey, who could influence a section of the community votes that reportedly went in favour of Ms. George in earlier elections.