It's beginning to look a lot like a Christmas tree shortage in Ontario amid high demand, low supply

The barn is stocked with hundreds of deep green Fraser and balsam firs, the sharp smell of wood and sap signalling the start of another busy season at Clembrook Christmas Farm.

Owners Brad and Jo Anne Clements in Milton, Ont. are anticipating such high demand for the firs they're opening a week later hoping to guarantee their supply will get them through December. But even then, there's a real possibility they'll be sold out early.

"If we run out and they want a Fraser fir, we won't have it. They would have to go and get a spruce or pine," Clements said, gesturing to his fields dotted with both, "but they're not overly popular." 

Clements has tried growing the sought-after Fraser fir with no luck in the heavy clay soil. So he has to order them from northern Ontario. This year, however, a perfect storm of factors has culminated in a shortage driving fir tree prices up about 20 per cent, he said. 

It's a North American problem going back to a decade ago, experts say. After all, that's when the trees we're buying now were first planted.

Coming off the recession in 2011, tree farmers were less inclined to scale up their operations and didn't anticipate today's surge in demand for real Christmas trees and Fraser firs in particular, said Shirley Brennan, executive director of Christmas Tree Farmers of Ontario.

"The demand has risen so much that we could not have forecasted that was going to happen," Brennan said. 

She said in the last five years alone, Canada's Christmas tree industry has nearly doubled from $53-million to  $100-million in total sales.

Forests Ontario CEO Rob Keen said as more people have become aware of climate change and the environmental impacts of artificial trees, they've sought out real ones. And as the pandemic continues, families are looking for an outdoor experience like visiting a farm or nursery in search of a perfect tree.

"There's a lot of benefits of using real trees," he said. "They've got a great fragrance about them. They look fantastic and they're 100 per cent biodegradable."

But while climate change and the pandemic may be driving demand, they're also hampering supply.

From Nova Scotia to Quebec and the Ottawa-area, late-spring frosts in recent years have damaged or destroyed Christmas trees big and small, Brennan said. The extreme heat from wildfires have affected trees in Alberta and B.C., and Ontario farmers have grappled with unusually dry springs and falls. The U.S. is having similar challenges and therefore not exporting trees to Canada at the same levels.

"Mother Nature is your silent partner in any farming," Brennan said. "She hasn't been very cooperative in the last few years."

The pandemic has also fuelled supply chain problems and has driven up transportation costs, said Keen. It has also contributed to a growing truck driver shortage.