‘India may have 8–10 lakh cases a day in mid-May’

Complacency with a false sense of security has led to the spike in cases, says Bhramar Mukherjee.

With the daily infections accelerating at a blazing speed to reach 3,45,103 on April 23, and the daily deaths stubbornly remaining above 2,000 and rising since April 20, the second wave is growing at an alarming rate resulting in health-care facilities bursting at the seams. The second wave is expected to peak in May. Professor of Epidemiology at University of Michigan in an email says there will be 8–10 lakhs cases a day in mid-May when it peaks, and 4,500 deaths around May 23. Edited excerpts: We have to be cautious here. Causality can sometimes be established by elimination of alternative explanations. Let us try that argument here. We all agree that it is not a single factor but a confluence of different factors all coinciding to create the perfect transmission inferno in India. Lack of covid-appropriate behaviour at a time when the country was fully reopening, massive rallies, religious gatherings, cricket matches, use of public transportations, all were taking place largely without proper face covering, throwing caution to the wind. Indoor facilities with air-conditionings like malls, theatres, restaurants were buzzing with people.