In special House elections during Trump era, fortune rarely favors opposing party

Early on during Donald Trump's first term as president, Republicans were at risk of losing a reliably red congressional seat in Kansas. 

His decision to nominate Mike Pompeo as CIA director led to the need for a special election to fill the former congressman's seat representing Wichita and a sprawling portion of the state along the Oklahoma border. 

Months earlier, Pompeo had comfortably won the district by 31 points. But by the time polls closed in the April 2017 special election for the seat, Republican candidate Ron Estes narrowly avoided an upset, going on to win the seat by around six points.