How NATO — and Canada — could do a lot more to defend Ukraine

It's become clear to all by now that NATO is not going to risk a Third World War by imposing a no-fly zone in Ukrainian airspace contested by Russian warplanes.

But perhaps the debate over a no-fly zone has distracted attention from other actions that Canada — and what Russian President Vladimir Putin calls "the collective West" — could take to help save Ukraine from Russia.

Canada has given Ukraine a considerable amount of assistance over the years. Since the annexation of Crimea, Canada has launched the Operation Unifier training program for Ukrainian troops and has contributed non-lethal aid — and lately, lethal military materiel — from its own meagre stocks. Canada also has been among the most aggressive countries when it comes to sanctioning Russia.

But there are other things this country, and other NATO allies, could do to help Ukraine.

Russia already has poured a significant portion of its combat power into Ukraine — but it still has more in reserve, spread out over its vast territory.

As the Russian offensive has stalled, Russian citizens in Siberian cities like Krasnoyarsk have been recording long trains carrying Russian armour west toward Ukraine.

Could NATO do anything to disrupt or discourage the movement of reinforcements to Ukraine? It could — through distraction.

If NATO were to stage joint exercises with Japan near the disputed Kuril islands off Russia's Pacific coast, Russia might be much less sanguine about stripping the region of its defences to bolster its forces in Ukraine. 

NATO also could stage manoeuvres in the Baltic region to discourage Russia from transferring forces from its North Military District.

If NATO really felt like pushing the envelope, it could stage exercises in the western part of the Black Sea, off the coasts of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria. That would mean the Russian ships now assembling off Odessa and shelling the coast — apparently in preparation for an amphibious assault — would have to operate with NATO warships and warplanes right at their backs.

"That's certainly one of the tactics NATO will be looking at," said Christian Leuprecht of the Royal Military College of Canada.

"The Black Sea is a very serious and genuine option. Romania has every reason to say, 'The Russians are shelling the Ukrainian coast. What are we doing to defend our coast?'"

Leuprecht said NATO should give Russia short notice of the exercises. "Usually these are announced a year ahead of time," he said. "That gives them time to draw down their forces."

Instead, he said, NATO should make use of the new troops moving to defend the alliance's eastern flank and be "more sporadic and spontaneous. You want to keep them on their toes."