From 'Sutradhar' to villain: Why MVA's collapse is a threat for Pawar and his NCP

The singling out by the Sena rebels of Pawar and the NCP, to be a prime reason behind their rebellion, has also thrown an unexpected spanner in the NCP’s medium-term plans in Maharashtra.

30 months ago, Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar was the toast of Maharashtra and nation’s non-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) politics. His effort, at resuscitating his own party and then stitching an unlikely coalition with the Shiv Sena and ally Congress, to keep the BJP out of power was hailed. A new template for the country’s opposition was discovered. So was a new, old leader who could stitch a similar combination and succeed where others had failed—in taking on the BJP.

Two and a half years later, Pawar is the subject of dejection at the experiment gone kaput, suspicion at his role in it and derision at being the reason for its unraveling.

In the last few days, as the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) has come undone, much of the attention has been focused on its chief minister Uddhav Thackeray and his fate, as his party splits.

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But, Pawar’s fate is as unclear, if not more and the sudden collapse of the government of which he, famously, was the sutradhar, has thrown open fresh and existential questions for Pawar—about his party’s future, its leadership and his own legacy. Indications are, after Thackeray, Pawar and the NCP will be the possible target of a ‘clampdown’ by the ruling BJP, through various means. With the government gone, Pawar will face a tough test to protect his turf, his party and his legacy.

Various NCP leaders confided that the party’s leadership was bracing for a fresh attempt by the BJP at splitting the party and luring some of its top leaders away.

Having managed to successfully split the Shiv Sena, indications are that the BJP is likely to turn its attention to its original target of such an intended split in 2019—Pawar’s NCP. Two NCP ministers in the MVA government—Nawab Malik and Anil Deshmukh—have already been in prison for months. Already, the ED has attached properties of NCP leader Eknath Khadse for alleged money laundering, while the Income Tax had raided businesses connected to Ajit Pawar last year on charges of tax evasion. Former NCP minister Hasan Mushrif has also faced allegations of irregularities and fraud in a sugar-factory linked to him.