Federal data forecasts grim wildfire season this summer

As hundreds of fires continue to burn across the country, officials with the federal government said this morning they're forecasting higher-than-normal fire activity across most of Canada through to August.

"Our modelling shows this may be an especially severe wildfire season throughout this summer," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a news conference.

"This is a scary time for a lot of people, not just in Alberta, but right across the country, including in the Atlantic, the North and Quebec, too."

Government data shared with reporters Monday shows 413 fires spanning multiple provinces and the North were burning as of Sunday afternoon, leaving about 26,206 people under evacuation orders in British Columbia, Alberta, Northwest Territories, Saskatchewan, Quebec and Nova Scotia.

More than half of those active fires are considered out of control, said Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair.

Mike Norton, director general of the Northern Forestry Centre at the Department of Natural Resources, told reporters Monday morning that seeing so many fires across the country at this time of year is not normal.

He urged Canadians to take "extreme care" in forested areas to avoid starting fires.

"Whether that's anything from a cigarette butt to an all-terrain vehicle, the season will require a very high degree of care to avoid more fires starting," he said.

"About half of fires in Canada started from lightning. [We] can't do much about those but we can do something about accidental starts from people.

So far this season, 2,214 fires have consumed more than three million hectares in Canada. The ten-year average over the same timeframe was 1,624 fires and 254,429 hectares burned, said Norton.

For June, the fire risk is considered well above average in every province and territory except Newfoundland and Labrador, where the risk is considered average.

Richard Carr, a fire research analyst with the Canadian Forest Service, said parts of the country are experiencing the worst aspects of a fading La Niña — a cold oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon — and a developing El Niño warming the sea surface.

"We've had a bit more heat than we've had during a typical La Niña spring but it does tend to favour very windy, dry conditions," he said.

Trudeau said the government has approved aid requests from Alberta, Nova Scotia and Quebec and has agreed to send Canadian Armed Forces troops.