Explained | Decoding the UN report on population trends, estimates

India projected to overtake China in population by 2023, Covid-19 pandemic impacted all components of population change: UN World Population Prospects 2022 report

The story so far: The 2022 edition of the World Population Prospects (WPP) of the United Nations has projected that India may surpass China as the world’s most populous country next year. The report estimates that India will have a population of 1.66 billion in 2050, ahead of China’s 1.317 billion around that time. In its previous estimate, the UN had projected that India would overtake China by 2027.

The report, released on July 11, cites declining levels of mortality, reflected in increased levels of life expectancy at birth, as one of the reasons behind population growth. It also mentions findings of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), which project that India will continue to witness a decline in total fertility rate— the average number of children borne by a woman in her lifetime.

On World Population Day, the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs released the World Population Prospects 2022, the 27th edition of official UN population estimates and projections prepared by the department’s Population Division. The WPP has been preparing the biennial report since 1951.

The report includes demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. According to the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, revisions of the WPP provide a consistent time series of population estimates from 1950 by taking into account updated national data. These estimates and projections are further used to calculate development indicators used by the UN system.

In the latest report, the WPP has given projections up to the year 2100 and provides an analysis of demographic trends. It includes population estimates starting from 1950 for more than 200 countries. The report uses data from national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2022, information from registration systems and representative sample surveys.

Here are some of the key points from the report:

The world population will reach eight billion by mid-November this year, growing to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. The global population is expected to reach 10.4 billion during the 2080s, where the levels are likely to stabilise until 2100.