Echoes of 2009 in Nepal   Premium

The final results from Nepal’s national election in November are finally becoming clear — and the next coalition would be wise to have a mechanism to balance internal power tussles and provide political stability  

After days of uncertainty, Nepal’s ruling coalition led by the Nepali Congress (NC) is within striking range of forming the next government. But the game of numbers is not yet settled. The coalition led by Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress (NC) is at 136 seats in the Pratinidhi Sabha (House of Representatives), two short of the magic figure, which makes it dependent on one of the new political formations to help it form the next government. On the other hand, the rival coalition led by the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), or CPN-UML, of former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli is also eyeing power, with 104 seats and plenty of cross-party discussions. That’s the scenario for now, before the Election Commission of Nepal sends the results to President Bidhya Devi Bhandari, thereby beginning the process of government formation.

The election has been anything but comfortable for the NC-led coalition, which was pushed to the seat of power by the Supreme Court of Nepal in July 2021. Several leading lights of the Deuba cabinet like Home Minister Bal Krishna Khand and Minister of State for the Prime Minister’s Office Umesh Shrestha have lost the election to the Pratinidhi Sabha. The defeat of such leading lights has taken the sheen off the NC’s claim to power and has given space to ambitious allies who want a bigger share of power. 

Besides giving a jolt to the established political leaders of the centrist NC, the election has also set back Maoist leaders, who have been the main beneficiaries of the country’s tryst with democracy that began with the downfall of the monarchy in 2008. The election of 2008 was a decisive moment, as it marked the debut of Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, a former Maoist leader, as a democratic leader. The Maoists produced a whole range of Prime Ministers in Madhav Nepal, K.P. Oli, Jhalanath Khanal in quick succession. 

Now, the November 2022 election has marked the arrival of new set of leaders in Nepal’s democracy. The Janmat Party’s leader, C.K. Raut, a former secessionist, has emerged as an important political figure, while NC notable Gagan Thapa’s success in the poll has triggered talk of younger leaders replacing the old guard consisting of PM Deuba and the Koirala stalwarts Shashank and Shekhar. The biggest surprise is the newly launched Rastriya Swatantra Party led by Rabi Lamichhane, a former TV anchor, that won 20 seats.

Working out a power-sharing agreement, against this backdrop, is expected to be a long process with unexpected turns, and a hint in that direction was dropped recently by leaders of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist-Centre) when an associate of Mr. Prachanda said the party would provide full support to the existing coalition with the NC, but then hinted at “power-sharing”. The past five years have been a lesson in Nepal’s complex political dynamics and power-sharing. The election in 2017 yielded Mr. Oli, the strong leader of the CPN-UML, as the Prime Minister, but problems began when the political parties of Mr. Prachanda and Mr. Oli merged to form the Nepali Communist Party (NCP). Finally, it was the intra-party problems of the NCP that forced Mr. Oli’s hands in dissolving the Pratinidhi Sabha, resulting in months of political crisis leading up to the judicial intervention of July 2021, and arrival of the NC government under Mr. Deuba. 

The immediate task ahead for Nepal’s political class therefore is to form a government that will be true to the mandate. Veteran Nepal watcher Namit Verma argues that the verdict dictates that the post of the Prime Minister of Nepal should go to the NC. The question, however, is whether such a position would be acceptable to Mr. Prachanda and other claimants like Madhav Nepal, who fought the election as the leader of the ruling coalition constituent Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Socialist). Observers like Mr. Verma see the possibility of a “high power committee” like the one constituted after the fall of the Prachanda government in 2009 to balance internal power tussles through constant discussion and engagement. In 2009, Mr. Nepal had become Prime Minister after Mr. Prachanda had to step down after clashing with then President Ram Baran Yadav. The “high power committee” was used to deal with pressure from NC patriarch G.P. Koirala and others in the 22-party alliance that governed for two years till February 2011.

For now, however, the first step in the direction of forming a government will depend on President Bhandari, who will invite the parties to form the next government after she receives the file from the Election Commission. A lot will depend on President Bhandari, who is known for her political acumen.