Doug Ford heads into Ontario's election year with a lead, but much uncertainty

As winter takes hold in Ontario, the spring election undoubtedly feels a long way away — but with campaigning officially beginning in little more than four months, the province's political parties are ramping up preparations.

Premier Doug Ford will seek re-election during the month-long campaign that culminates in voting day on June 2. His rivals for the job, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca, are each vying to position themselves as the only person and party who can defeat Ford and his Progressive Conservatives. 

Meanwhile, Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner acknowledges he won't form government but wants to boost the number of Green MPPs. If there's a slim minority, there's even a chance he could hold the balance of power.

Take Ford's roller-coaster high-profile term as premier and throw in all the variables of the COVID-19 pandemic — including the impact of the Omicron variant or whatever comes next — and Ontario has the makings of a profoundly politically interesting 2022.

A Progressive Conservative lead is the chief consistency in publicly available Ontario polling conducted since the federal election in September. Polls have been released by polling firms EKOS, Leger Marketing, Mainstreet Research and the Angus Reid Institute 

"As the second and third wave of the pandemic dissipated, we saw things actually not too bad for Premier Ford and the Progressive Conservatives, down a little bit from what got him elected premier (in 2018) but still in strong shape," said Andrew Enns, executive vice president of Leger Marketing. 

"But we've seen that lead erode over the fall period, and it's actually tightened up a bit," added Enns. 

Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research Group, a Toronto-based polling firm, says key to a PC party victory will be attracting voters who don't identify as PC supporters but who do want Ford to be premier. 

"There are a lot of Ontarians who think that whatever mistakes he makes, he owns up to them and he's trying to do his best, said Lyle. "There are many Ontarians that think he's horrible, but more than enough that think he's doing a good job." 

Lyle says Ford's personal approval ratings have improved since sagging in the spring over his handling of the third wave of the pandemic. For 2022, a big unknown is how the Ford government's response to the Omicron variant will factor into the voter mood.

As the official opposition, the NDP is — in theory at least — best positioned to pitch themselves to voters as the natural alternative to Ford's PCs. However, the party's polling numbers tend to lag behind their leader's approval ratings, posing a challenge for the New Democrats to build on their 40-seat total in the last election. In Ontario, 63 seats are needed to win a majority.

The NDP's campaign director, Michael Balagus, sees opportunity among the 60 per cent or more of Ontarians who tell pollsters they want a new government.   

"The challenge for us now is to show the people that we can be that government," said Balagus in an interview. "From the research that we're doing, and from the anecdotal evidence, just talking to folks out there, I think there's real openness like never before to us."  

Horwath is heading into her fourth campaign as leader. While she has increased the party's total seat count in each successive election so far, this time around, anything short of forming government would likely be perceived as a failure.