Discontented Germany votes in an election with economy, migration and far-right strength in focus

Germany's upcoming election will shape its response to global challenges, with the center-right opposition favored to win.

German voters are choosing a new government in an election on Sunday (February 23, 2025) dominated by worries about the years-long stagnation of Europe's biggest economy, pressure to curb migration and growing uncertainty over the future of Ukraine and Europe's alliance with the United States. The center-right opposition is favored to win, while polls point to the strongest result for a far-right party since World War II.

Germany is the most populous country in the 27-nation European Union and a leading member of NATO. It has been Ukraine's biggest second-weapons supplier, after the U.S. It will be central to shaping the continent's response to the challenges of the coming years, including the Trump administration's confrontational foreign and trade policy.

More than 59 million people in the nation of 84 million are eligible to elect the 630 members of the lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, who will take their seats under the glass dome of Berlin's landmark Reichstag building.

Germany's electoral system rarely produces absolute majorities, and no party looks anywhere near one this time. It's expected that two or more parties will form a coalition, following potentially difficult negotiations that will take weeks or even months before the Bundestag elects the next chancellor.

This election is taking place seven months before it was originally planned after center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition collapsed in November, three years into a term that was increasingly marred by infighting. There's widespread discontent and not much enthusiasm for any of the candidates.

Center-right opposition leader Friedrich Merz's Union bloc has consistently led polls, with 28-32% support in the most recent surveys, and Merz is favored to replace Scholz. Scholz's Social Democrats have been polling between 14-16%, which would be their worst postwar result in a national parliamentary election.

The far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, has been running in second place with around 20% of the vote — well above its previous best of 12.6% in a national election, from 2017 — and has fielded its first candidate for chancellor in Alice Weidel. But other parties say they won't work with it, a stance often known as the “firewall.”