Data | Service firms on recovery path, manufacturing still a concern
The Hindu
While pessimism levels among urban consumers have declined, confidence about the economy is yet to reach pre-pandemic levels
The share of urban consumers who were pessimistic about the Indian economy continued to decline in January 2023 though more than half of them said the situation has worsened compared to a year ago.
Chart 1A shows the responses from a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) survey conducted across 19 major cities between January 2 and 11. When asked to comment on their current perception of the economic situation, 52.1% said it has worsened. This is the lowest share since the pandemic outbreak. Still, the share was significantly higher than the 28.3% who said the economic situation has improved (not plotted on the graph).
Chart 1B shows that 49.9% of the respondents were pessimistic about their current employment scenario. Notably, in the last two survey editions — November 2022 and January 2023 — the share has remained below the 50% mark. Due to the economic slowdown in 2019 and the pandemic that followed, a majority had remained pessimistic since July 2019, but that trend has changed.
Chart 1C shows that 29.6% of the respondents were pessimistic about their current income levels. This is the lowest share since the pandemic outbreak but is still considerably higher than the pre-pandemic levels.
Worryingly, close to 94% of the respondents continued to say that price levels of commodities have increased ( Chart 1D ).
Though optimism is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, the degree of pessimism about the economy, jobs and income levels has declined. High prices, though, are still a sore point.
Chart 2 shows the growth in new orders received by 800 manufacturing companies surveyed by the RBI. The quarter-on-quarter growth of new orders received turned negative in Q2FY23 (July-September 2022) after being in the positive for four straight quarters.