Data Point | Understanding the goals and vision of COP27 

What are delegates discussing at COP27? How far has the world come in tackling climate change and what are the challenges ahead? 

Last week, the 27th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP27) was held in Sharm-El-Sheik in Egypt. The delegates had gathered to discuss ways of mitigating environmental degradation and stopping a climate catastrophe from taking place. Delegates from 197 countries, all of whom are a part of the Paris Climate Accord, are now meeting to find a solution that will aim to stop global temperatures from reaching a temperature that is 2 degrees Celsius higher than the long-term average temperature between 1951 and 1980. The global mean surface air temperature for that period was 14°C. The planet is on track to heat up between 2.1 degrees Celsius and 2.9 degrees Celsius by 2100, which is lower than the pre-Paris Accord projection of 4 degrees Celsius. However, this is enough to cause and worsen the extreme weather events we are seeing today. 

United Nations Secretary General António Guterres opened the meeting with a hard-hitting speech. “Humanity has a choice: cooperate or perish,” he said. As several regions of the world face regular extreme weather events, it is clear that climate change is here. As a result, the goals and vision of COP27 are the following: mitigation, adaptation, finance and collaboration.

Mitigation aims to keep global temperatures below at least the 2 degree Celsius threshold. However, according to the UN’s 2022 Emissions Gap Report, despite making bold promises to “strengthen Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and some updates from nations,” the progress seen since COP26 has been “woefully inadequate.” NDCs are a crucial part of the Paris Accord. They are essentially domestic action plans on climate mitigation that each party prepares, communicates and maintains, post 2020. 

The data show that the current pledges made would reduce CO2 emissions by just 0.5 gigatonnes–less than 1% of what is predicted for 2030. To meet the COP goal, countries will have to increase their unconditional and conditional (needing external assistance) NDCs by 5% and 10%, respectively. If this doesn’t happen, the report’s findings say that global temperatures will increase by 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100.

Graph on emissions and warming projections

The graph above from Climate Action Tracker helps to understand how various emissions-reducing projections will play out. Between 1990 and 2020, global greenhouse gas emissions rose by 14 GtCO2e (gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent). If the policies that leaders have currently put in place continue, Earth will be on track to warm by about 2.7 degrees Celsius, which is far from the Paris Accord’s target. If we remove the policies and just look at NDC 2030 targets, temperatures will rise by 2.4 degrees Celsius. More stringent and long-term pledges could lead to a rise of just 2 degrees Celsius. And if net-zero targets are met, the possibility of keeping global warming below the 2 degree Celsius-mark could become real. 

Unfortunately, we don’t have to wait until 2030 to see the impacts of a warming planet. In fact, according to a report by the Centre for Science and Environment, India saw extreme weather events on 88% of the days in the first nine months of this year. These disasters, which have become more frequent and far more intense than they were earlier, killed 2,755 people and destroyed acres of crops and thousands of homes.