Countdown to U.S. reciprocal tariffs: What to Expect

U.S. set to announce reciprocal tariffs targeting countries with high trade deficits, including India, amid ongoing trade negotiations.

With hours to go for the U.S. announcement on “reciprocal tariffs” that have been touted by U.S. President Donald Trump since he came to office as a way to “tax them as they tax us” — referring to countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods imports — the White House is set to unveil the plan at a Make America Wealthy Again event. The announcement will take place in the Rose Garden at 4 p.m. U.S. EST (1:30 a.m. IST on Thursday) and are due to go into effect immediately, according to the White House. 

While officials have been tight-lipped about the final announcement due to be made, here’s what is expected, per various comments by senior Trade and Treasury officials in the last few weeks: 

India hopes for some sort of exceptional treatment, given Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington and talks with Mr. Trump in February, and the launch of talks for a Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) since then. In a statement issued at the end of the last round of talks March 25-29 in Delhi between U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) officials and Commerce Ministry officials, the government said they had “broadly come to an understanding” on the next steps for the BTA, and hoped to finalise the first tranche or part of it by Fall 20205 (September-November). 

The statement said they would now start negotiations sector-by-sector virtually, and also hold talks on issues like “increasing market access, reducing tariff and non-tariff barriers and deepening supply chain integration”.

Even so, statements from the White House, including Mr. Trump himself, indicate India is seen amongst the “worst offenders” on trade, and has been singled out for both high tariffs (applied tariff rate was 17.0 percent in 2023 by WTO figures) and the bilateral trade deficit ($45.7 bn) in its favour.

On March 31, Ms. Leavitt addressed the White House press corps holding up a chart which she said showed the worst “tariff offenders”, including “50% from the European Union on American dairy, 700% tariff from Japan on American rice, a 100% tariff from India on American agricultural products, and nearly a 300% tariff from Canada on American butter and American cheese”.

The figures were referred to in the 2025 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers released by the USTR on March 31..