Conservative strategists expect status quo cabinet from re-elected Ford government

Premier Doug Ford's new cabinet will be sworn in Wednesday, and some conservative strategists expect familiar ministers to be sitting around that table as the re-elected Progressive Conservatives try to project stability in the face of U.S. tariffs. 

Ford told reporters on Tuesday that his cabinet will reflect what he heard from the people of the province during the snap election last month. They expect him to keep pushing back against the tariffs but also be ready to provide targeted relief for businesses and workers if necessary, he said.

"I have to make sure I put the proper cabinet ministers in based on the mandate we received from the people," Ford said. 

The premier's PCs won their third straight majority government on Feb. 27. Members of provincial parliament are being sworn in this week at Queen's Park and cabinet members will take their oaths during a 90-minute ceremony at the Royal Ontario Museum. 

Headed into the election, Ford had one of the largest cabinets in the history of the province with 37 members. Conservative strategists say they're not expecting any dramatic changes to its makeup and that the premier will likely return many of his key ministers to their portfolios.

"We have to acknowledge that he ran essentially on a message of status quo and steady as she goes. That makes me feel that we're not going to see that many changes in cabinet," said Laryssa Waler, founder of Henley Strategies.

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Waler, who is also a former spokesperson for Ford, said it takes time to build relationships with stakeholders in some of the biggest cabinet portfolios. And with the uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump, now may not be the right time to appoint someone new to an important post, she said.

"For a new minister to assume a file, it takes a long time," she said. "That's why you usually don't see somebody ascending from the backbench right into one of the top ministries, because there is such a learning curve."

Conservative strategist Shakir Chambers said he also expects Ford to stick with the team he had ahead of the election. It's not just ministers who require time to get up to speed, it's also their teams, he said.

"Ministers are only as good as their staff," said Chambers, a vice president at the Oyster Group. "These folks are going to take quite a while not only to know their files, but to build relationships with the government officials and the bureaucrats."

"I think it's just that downstream effect of actually shuffling significant portfolios that will cause longer-term headaches for the government," he added.

Loyalist Strategies founding partner Dan Mader said no matter who ends up in what chairs at the cabinet table, he expects Ford will continue to take the lead on the trade war. With that in mind, he'll want to keep his top fiscal ministers — Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy and Economic Development Minister Vic Fedeli — in their portfolios, Mader said.