Carney Liberals return to House of Commons still short of a majority
CBC
Depending on who you ask, the Carney Liberals could be on the cusp of securing a majority — or triggering a general election.
Senior Liberal sources say the upcoming sitting of the House of Commons has no clear outcome, as they try to advance their legislative agenda in a minority Parliament with no obvious support from the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois or NDP.
Despite diplomatic efforts, the Carney Liberals have so far been unable to woo any additional floor-crossers over the break and are now returning to the House of Commons two seats shy of a majority following the resignation of Chrystia Freeland.
Nor was there a much-rumoured shake-up of Carney's front bench over the break, leaving Quebec MPs Joël Lightbound and Steven MacKinnon holding additional portfolios conferred to them after the cabinet departures of Freeland and Quebec MP Steven Guilbeault.
And at least one more Liberal MP, Bill Blair, is expected to step down for a diplomatic appointment.
Twelve senior Conservative and Liberal sources shared their views on what is set to happen in the upcoming parliamentary sitting. CBC News is not naming the sources because they are not authorized to discuss internal party strategy.
Though MPs will be back in Ottawa as of next week, expect all eyes to be in Calgary the following weekend.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's leadership review is set to be held during the party's convention — and three Liberal sources say they believe the results could matter.
During the last sitting, Poilievre's caucus lost three MPs. Nova Scotia MP Chris d'Entremont and Ontario MP Michael Ma crossed the floor to the Liberals. A third MP who sources say was considering joining the Liberals, Matt Jeneroux, announced he would be vacating his seat altogether.
Jeneroux is still a member of Parliament for Edmonton Riverbend, but has abstained in voting since announcing he would be resigning. He hasn't announced an exact departure date, saying it is "likely this spring."
For a time, Liberal sources say they were in discussions with other MPs from multiple parties — including Conservative MPs. The depth of those discussions ranged, and so did the people involved in the courting. But the sources say, as of last week, those talks have stalled.
NDP MP Lori Idlout and B.C. Conservative MP Scott Anderson have both said they were approached by the Liberals.
However, some Liberals are hopeful that if Poilievre achieves a high level of support at the Conservative convention, that could push some MPs unhappy with his leadership to make the leap.
They say if Poilievre is perceived as being locked in as leader for the next election, that might push MPs who have been hesitant to cross the floor.
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