BAFTA 2025: What ‘Conclave’, ‘Emilia Perez’ leading the pack means for the Oscar race

BAFTA 2025 nominations reveal frontrunners Conclave and Emilia Pérez, setting the stage for the upcoming Academy Awards.

The BAFTA 2025 nominations have landed, and as the season’s penultimate indicator, they’ve given us plenty to parse ahead of the Academy Awards. Leading the pack is Edward Berger’s Conclave, with an impressive 12 nominations, including Best Film and Best Director. The satirical drama about scheming cardinals jockeying for influence in a papal election has clearly struck a chord with BAFTA voters, securing a dominant position as an Oscar frontrunner.

Hot on its heels is Netflix’s Emilia Pérez, a Spanish-language musical with 11 nods. The story of a cartel leader’s transformative journey as a transgender woman showcased some groundbreaking representation. Standout performances from Zoe Saldana and Karla Sofía Gascón have placed them firmly in the Oscar conversation.

The acting categories brought their own surprises. Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) and Demi Moore (The Substance) lead the Best Actress field. Moore, fresh off her Golden Globe win, now looks like a serious Oscar contender, while Erivo’s first BAFTA nod lends her critical momentum. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) anchor the Best Actor race. However, the omission of Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) and Daniel Craig (Queer) raised eyebrows, particularly given their prominence in earlier predictions.

One of the season’s breakout performances belongs to Mikey Madison in Anora, a whirlwind romance that earned seven nominations, including Best Film. Madison, also up for the Rising Star Award, is carving a path as a key Oscar contender. Her co-star Yura Borisov’s supporting nod and director Sean Baker’s recognition further bolster Anora’s campaign.

Another film gaining steam is The Brutalist, which explores a Hungarian architect’s post-World War II journey to America. Brady Corbet’s direction, which already secured him a Golden Globe, has earned him a first BAFTA nod, positioning the film as a dark horse for Best Picture at the Oscars.

Blockbusters, often overlooked, managed respectable showings. Dune: Part Two and Wicked both landed seven nominations, proving that big-budget spectacle still has its place in awards season. However, Gladiator II underwhelmed, with just three nominations, none in the marquee categories, marking a rare stumble for Ridley Scott.

The so-called “BAFTA Best Film curse” has long been a source of intrigue and frustration for awards pundits. While the BAFTAs often set the tone for the Oscars, their top prize has historically been something of a rogue element, diverging from the Academy’s final choice more often than not. Notable examples of late include The Power of the Dog, which dominated BAFTA only to lose to CODA at the Oscars, and 1917, a homegrown war epic that swept BAFTA but fell to Parasite on the global stage. This pattern, some argue, reflects BAFTA’s preference for technically masterful or British-leaning fare, while the Oscars lean toward films with broader emotional resonance. With Conclave leading this year’s BAFTA pack, the question looms: will it solidify its frontrunner status or join the storied list of films that triumph in London only to falter in Los Angeles?