Backgrounder | What’s going on in Nepal politics? Premium

A new power-sharing deal is now in the works between the Nepali Congress, the Maoists and the Unified-Socialists led by former PM Madhav Nepal.

The story so far: Nepal is going through yet another churn in its polity and government. Ahead of the presidential election scheduled for March 9, there has been a fresh change in the combination of parties that will determine the ruling coalition in the country. Former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli-led CPN-UML party has decided to withdraw its support to the Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’-led government following a disagreement over support to the presidential candidate. Mr. Dahal will now seek a vote of confidence after the presidential election and reshuffle his Cabinet as well, local media reports said.

Nepal went to polls in November 2022 and the Nepali Congress emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives (HoR). The Nepali Congress had formed a pre-poll coalition with Mr. Dahal-led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) besides other parties such as the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified-Socialist), former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai’s Socialist Party of Nepal, and the Madhes-based Loktantrik Samajwadi Party, among others. Mr. Dahal’s Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) could only win 32 seats—FPTP (first past the post) plus proportional representation— in an underwhelming performance as part of the Democratic Left Alliance (DLA) coalition. Mr. Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), meanwhile, bagged 78 seats overall even as the UML-led coalition came in second place to the DLA.

Sher Bahadur Deuba, the incumbent Prime Minister leading the Nepali Congress, was expected to return to the post following the coalition’s victory. But in a twist post the elections, Mr. Dahal exited the alliance and joined hands with Mr. Oli’s UML, gaining the Prime Ministerial post in an arrangement that guarantees him two and a half years in the post before handing it over to Mr. Oli for the rest of the government’s tenure.

In the bargain, Mr. Oli’s UML landed the Speaker’s post in the new House of Representatives thanks to the support of the Maoists. Mr. Dahal also gained support from other parties including the royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (14 seats) and the freshly formed Rashtriya Swantantra Party (20 seats) in a new coalitionnow clearly led by the UML. Mr Oli later claimed that per their understanding,Mr. Dahal would support the UML’s candidate of choice in the forthcoming presidential election.

In an uncanny political twist, Mr. Dahal won the vote of confidence in Nepal’s Assembly in January 2023 with a staggering 268 votes in his favour, including those of the Nepali Congress party, in Opposition. The Nepali Congress decided to support Mr. Dahal to retain the possibility of its candidate getting the Maoists’ support in the Presidential elections.

Following the NC’s support in the trust vote, Mr. Dahal announced his support for the former’s presidential candidate Ram Chandra Poudel in the March 9 election, breaking with his new alliance partner, the UML, which had nominated former Speaker Subas Nembang.

Prime Minister Dahal’s sudden “volte-face” resulted in a fresh rift with the UML leading to the withdrawal of Mr. Oli’s party from the post-poll alliance. The royalist RPP has also quit the government. The RSP withdrew its Ministers from the government — its leader Rabi Lamichchane had to resign after a Supreme Court ruling on his citizenship issue earlier this year — but assured support to the government from the outside.