An atomic tug of war Premium

After the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, which also saw American B2 bombers attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles targeting the American military base in Qatar, Israel declared a ‘historic victory’.

After the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, which also saw American B2 bombers attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iranian missiles targeting the American military base in Qatar, Israel declared a ‘historic victory’. U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that American strikes had “obliterated” the Iranian nuclear facilities. The Iranians kept tactical silence about the impact of the strikes on their nuclear plans, including the Fordow facility, which is built deep underground, beneath a mountain.

However, early assessments by the U.S. intelligence community, which were leaked to American media, claimed that Iran’s nuclear programme had not been destroyed by U.S. strikes, but set back by “a few months”. Even if the nuclear facilities were destroyed, there is no certainty that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and all advanced centrifuges have been destroyed. There were reports, based on European intelligence assessments, that Iran had dispersed its enriched uranium well before the Israeli-American strikes. According to Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN’s nuclear watchdog, Iran has the industrial and technological capacity to resume enriching uranium in a few months. This leaves the Iranian nuclear programme unresolved, at least from an Israeli point of view

After Mr. Trump, in his first term, unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA), Iran had maintained that it would not hold direct talks with the U.S. There were multiple rounds of indirect talks in Vienna after Joe Biden became President in 2021, but those efforts were inconclusive. Iran, in this period, substantially accelerated its nuclear programme. In 2024, Iran came under increasing pressure — its so-called axis of resistance was humbled by Israel, it lost an ally in Syria when the regime of President Bashar al-Assad fell, and its economy was in serious trouble.

This article is from The Hindu e-book. Iran: Revolution in retreat

As the heat on Iran rose, Mr. Trump offered dialogue. “We can’t let Iran have a nuclear bomb,” he said in April. Faced with the threat of war in a moment of weakness, Iran agreed to engage the Americans diplomatically. However, Israel struck Iran on June 12, when Iran was technically in talks with the U.S. The attack has set back the diplomatic efforts. And Iran’s nuclear programme remains one of the most dangerous disputes in West Asia as tensions between Iran and Israel are heating up again.

Iran, a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), ceased to cooperate with the IAEA after the 1979 revolution that brought down the Shah’s monarchy and led to the establishment of the Islamic Republic.